Twitter Archives - Nassim Taleb

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb to Speak at the American University of Beirut on December 9

On November 21, 2024 By Admin In Conferences, Twitter, X

[Twitter | X] A Redervation of Székely’s Negative Probability via Fractional Coins

On September 27, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

https://t.co/eyTcI7riMQ pic.twitter.com/oBjnougJ01
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 26, 2024

Link to Paper – Half of a Coin: Negative Probabilities

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Conjecture Tested: Experiment Shows Results of Trading with News in Advance

On September 26, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
My conjecture, expressed on X, that pple w/news in advance don't do well has been tested by Haghani et al.

Indeed they failed to really capitalize on information 1) you don't know beforehand what is noise, & 2) overestimate the information (sizing) pic.twitter.com/6pcwrrVOgf
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 25, 2024

Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Reiterates His Critique: IQ as Pseudoscience and Its Role in Race Science

On August 28, 2024 By Admin In Politics, Statements, Twitter, Writing, X

Finally, years after my IQ is not like height. Height is measured, IQ (assuming it works) is estimated. Height is low-dimensional with small variance, so the expression translates more accurately. IQ is high dimensional with high variance and high dependence on environment. https://t.co/ypvMLOMYNT pic.twitter.com/o2zbMIB0Kk
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2024

Sourcehttps://t.co/sR5GJEHz60
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2024

[Twitter | X] Medicine & Entropy: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Health Asymmetry Between ‘Sedentary’ and ‘Fit’

On August 28, 2024 By Admin In Statements, Twitter, X

MEDICINE & ENTROPY

I keep insisting on asymmetries from using wrong reference base.
"Sedentary bt healthy" as control gets different results from using "environmentally fit" (10-15 h of exercise).
Like K-L divergence which is never symmetric.

Why?
"Sedentary healthy" has many… https://t.co/XwUCfmucgJ pic.twitter.com/f6X2peaqKr
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 26, 2024

2/ The Kullbacl-Leibner divergence is simply the relative distance between indiv* A and indiv B using the traits of B as baseline.
*Or population pic.twitter.com/s4STaTYwFn
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 26, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Says: Don’t Risk It All Betting Against a Bubble

On August 20, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, X

Don't risk it all betting against a bubble. I know it is tempting, but resist:
Spitznagel's come to Jesus moment: close your eyes and imagine + 20% and ~-50%.https://t.co/tHej8plVfh pic.twitter.com/SXHHI90xLX
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 19, 2024

[Twitter | X] ECONOMIC DISCUSSION: where does inflation come from when raw materials are roughly unchanged?

On August 20, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, X

ECONOMIC DISCUSSION: where does inflation come from when raw materials are roughly unchanged?

The chart shows the GSCommodity Index a weighted basket of main commodities (correlates to the CRB w/more energy).

(Note: I block for trolling & sophistry, not crazy answers). pic.twitter.com/IWnBldNv85
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 19, 2024

I am adding the Baltic Index for ~ freight costs. pic.twitter.com/WdPG6uXCn1
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 19, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Kelly Criterion and Mutual Information in Investment Settings

On August 8, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

DISCUSSION
Thanks to a 6 hours flight delay, relied on the soothing effect of mathematics & tried to figure out the effect of side information in a Kelly-style betting framework, which requires re-deriving Kelly.
Any derivation/sign errors? pic.twitter.com/dI2BQGeSUR
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 7, 2024

I think I managed to (re?)derive the equivalent of Mutual Information from side information in a continuous setting. pic.twitter.com/GlelkSHHXB
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2024

pic.twitter.com/qPFlEY7qOh
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 7, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Dismisses Labeling S&P 500’s Worst Day in Two Years as a ‘Black Swan’ Event

On August 7, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, Videos, X

Was yesterday's huge market sell-off, the worst day for the S&P 500 in nearly two years, a "Black Swan" event?@NNTaleb, who wrote "The Black Swan," says no. pic.twitter.com/xj0DR4wEZd
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 6, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Tweets ‘The Black Swan’ as the Most Influential 21st Century Book

On August 1, 2024 By Admin In Statements, Twitter, X

Dear enemies,The Black Swan is now the most influential (that is, discussed/mentioned) 21st C book.
While almost all books have a half-life between 2 and 6 months, it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy

[Same with other 4 books in the Incerto. Graph is US only] pic.twitter.com/eUYGTPtMTJ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 30, 2024

The other 4 books in Taleb’s “Incerto” book series:

Fooled by Randomness
The Bed of Procrustes
Antifragile
Skin in the Game