Link to article – www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/2/343
[Twitter] Maximum Ignorance Probability, with Application to Surgery’s Error Rates
A maximum entropy alternative to Bayesian methods for the estimation of independent Bernouilli sums.
On Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Its Mismeasurement
HRV appears to be ill-defined in papers and regressions; using logged variables fixes the problem.
Link to paper – fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/on-heart-rate-variability-mismeasurement/
Nassim completes 3rd edition of The Bed of Procrustes
Nassim tweeted that he added more aphorisms on the 3rd edition of his book, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms.
The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms is a philosophy book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb written in the aphoristic style. It was first released on November 30, 2010 by Random House. An updated edition was released on October 26, 2016 that includes fifty percent more material than the 2010 edition.
[Online] Global Technical Incerto Reading Club goes through the Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Global Technical Incerto Reading Club is going through the Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
They aim to cover: Chapter 10: It is what it is: diagnosing the S&P 500 Chapter 11: Probability Calibration under Fat Tails Our confirmed speakers are @Sharpe_Actuary , @MFergal and @MarcosCarreira.
Everyone is welcome to sign up at meetup.com/global-technical-incerto-reading-club
Paper: SCALA POLITICA – Politics and Governance Under Scaling and Uncertainty
Most of the tension resides between 1) Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localism (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system), and 2) Abstract one-dimensional universalists and monoculturalism (politics as a top-down engineering project). We go beyond the verbalism; we rely on information theory, complexity theory, uncertainty approaches (say fragility), and probabilistic rigor to look at politics with the same eyes as we examine highly dimensional interactive elements such as nature, biological systems, internet networks, and medical issues.
Link to Paper – academia.edu/38433249/Scala_Politica
Life Expectancy can be so grossly misunderstood by “experts”
Link to article – Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News
Paper: Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics
Link to Paper – academia.edu/41442347/Informational…
Paper: On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management.
We use the COVID-19 pandemic as the background for the discussion and as an example of a phenomenon characterized by a multiplicative nature, and what mitigating policies must result from the statistical properties and associated risks. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. (2020).
Link to Paper – sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/…