Twitter Archives - Nassim Taleb

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Reiterates His Critique: IQ as Pseudoscience and Its Role in Race Science

On August 28, 2024 By Admin In Politics, Statements, Twitter, Writing, X

Finally, years after my IQ is not like height. Height is measured, IQ (assuming it works) is estimated. Height is low-dimensional with small variance, so the expression translates more accurately. IQ is high dimensional with high variance and high dependence on environment. https://t.co/ypvMLOMYNT pic.twitter.com/o2zbMIB0Kk
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2024

Sourcehttps://t.co/sR5GJEHz60
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2024

[Twitter | X] Medicine & Entropy: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Health Asymmetry Between ‘Sedentary’ and ‘Fit’

On August 28, 2024 By Admin In Statements, Twitter, X

MEDICINE & ENTROPY

I keep insisting on asymmetries from using wrong reference base.
"Sedentary bt healthy" as control gets different results from using "environmentally fit" (10-15 h of exercise).
Like K-L divergence which is never symmetric.

Why?
"Sedentary healthy" has many… https://t.co/XwUCfmucgJ pic.twitter.com/f6X2peaqKr
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 26, 2024

2/ The Kullbacl-Leibner divergence is simply the relative distance between indiv* A and indiv B using the traits of B as baseline.
*Or population pic.twitter.com/s4STaTYwFn
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 26, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Says: Don’t Risk It All Betting Against a Bubble

On August 20, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, X

Don't risk it all betting against a bubble. I know it is tempting, but resist:
Spitznagel's come to Jesus moment: close your eyes and imagine + 20% and ~-50%.https://t.co/tHej8plVfh pic.twitter.com/SXHHI90xLX
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 19, 2024

[Twitter | X] ECONOMIC DISCUSSION: where does inflation come from when raw materials are roughly unchanged?

On August 20, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, X

ECONOMIC DISCUSSION: where does inflation come from when raw materials are roughly unchanged?

The chart shows the GSCommodity Index a weighted basket of main commodities (correlates to the CRB w/more energy).

(Note: I block for trolling & sophistry, not crazy answers). pic.twitter.com/IWnBldNv85
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 19, 2024

I am adding the Baltic Index for ~ freight costs. pic.twitter.com/WdPG6uXCn1
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 19, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Kelly Criterion and Mutual Information in Investment Settings

On August 8, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

DISCUSSION
Thanks to a 6 hours flight delay, relied on the soothing effect of mathematics & tried to figure out the effect of side information in a Kelly-style betting framework, which requires re-deriving Kelly.
Any derivation/sign errors? pic.twitter.com/dI2BQGeSUR
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 7, 2024

I think I managed to (re?)derive the equivalent of Mutual Information from side information in a continuous setting. pic.twitter.com/GlelkSHHXB
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2024

pic.twitter.com/qPFlEY7qOh
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 7, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Dismisses Labeling S&P 500’s Worst Day in Two Years as a ‘Black Swan’ Event

On August 7, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, Videos, X

Was yesterday's huge market sell-off, the worst day for the S&P 500 in nearly two years, a "Black Swan" event?@NNTaleb, who wrote "The Black Swan," says no. pic.twitter.com/xj0DR4wEZd
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 6, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Tweets ‘The Black Swan’ as the Most Influential 21st Century Book

On August 1, 2024 By Admin In Statements, Twitter, X

Dear enemies,The Black Swan is now the most influential (that is, discussed/mentioned) 21st C book.
While almost all books have a half-life between 2 and 6 months, it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy

[Same with other 4 books in the Incerto. Graph is US only] pic.twitter.com/eUYGTPtMTJ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 30, 2024

The other 4 books in Taleb’s “Incerto” book series:

Fooled by Randomness
The Bed of Procrustes
Antifragile
Skin in the Game

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Cites JAMA Study to Reinforce Critique of Statistical Gerrymandering in Drug Recommendations

On July 25, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Twitter, X

STATINS
As I explained in Antifragile, much of the results recommending drugs do "statistical gerrymandering", that is, pollute the base rate w/the sick population.

A great new study in JAMA shows a J curve for statins for non-sick people, with n >4.5 Mil! (China pop). https://t.co/RErQgjO2DY pic.twitter.com/Ogr67tjL8G
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 24, 2024

Link to JAMA study: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821340

[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains Why Economists Struggle in Practical Fields

On July 9, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Statements, Twitter, X

Link to tweet – x.com/nntaleb/status/1810010163270619255

[Twitter/X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains the Research Surge in Developing Countries

On July 7, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

Why are we seeing an explosion of research from China, India, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, etc.?

A tiny bit of growth leads to nonlinear effects in the tails. As education improves 1 STD, the number of PhDs is multiplied by 42.

Need to calibrate with real nmbrs. pic.twitter.com/QRctYvJ6Qs
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 6, 2024

2/This is not about paper mills, etc., but genuine research (i.e., in Nature Index) and doctorates in medicine.
Also this applies to skills in the tails, like STEM pple, not just PhDs.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 6, 2024