Outlining a basic error in statistical interpretation: statistics works on aggregates, not individual instances. You can only use statistical properties when dealing with groups not individuals –except when the variance is zero –in which case why use statistics?
Even if IQ worked outside of severe deficits, it wouldn’t be applicable to decisions concerning single individuals.
Applies to President Biden’s pancreatic cancer.
I use as example on IQ arguments by bullshit vendor Geoffrey Miller.
Category: Academic
[Substack] Have Another Drink!
I have been finding flaws in studies critical of alcohol consumption in low to moderate doses. The one I will examine is the following one used as “definitive” argument in the medical discussions.
George S, Naimi TS, Keyes K, Martinez-Matyszczyk P, et al. (including Shield KD). “Alcohol Intake and Health Study: No Protective Effect at Low Levels, With Mortality Increasing to 1 in 25 at 14 Drinks Per Week.” Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, 2026 (Vol. 87, Issue 4; DOI: 10.15288/jsad.25-00435). This analysis was commissioned by the US goverment. It has a deceiving title and a deceiving summary conclusion: “At low levels of consumption, no protective net effect of alcohol consumption on health was observed.”. Their claim is that lifetime alcohol-attributable mortality risk were >1 in 1,000 at around 7 drinks per week and reached ~1 in 25 (4%) at 14 drinks/week (the established upper guideline limit). It offers a guidance of no more than 1 drink per day (or less).
Continue reading on Substack – nntaleb.substack.com/p/have-another-drink
[X] A Correction to Falconer’s Twin Correlation Formula for Stochastic Environments
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Statistical Distance Between the Ultra-Wealthy and Billionaires
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Bryan Johnson’s 100-Pill Regimen and Higher-Order Drug Interactions
Nassim Nicholas Taleb calculates the number of possible pairwise and higher-order interactions in Bryan Johnson’s reported 100-pill regimen.
Link to Post on X – x.com/nntaleb/status/2075765618955981177
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Varentropy, Kurtosis, and Fat-Tailedness
[X] Statistics for the Four Population Test
[X] Hidden Optionalities and Risks in American Options
Link to Post on X – x.com/nntaleb/status/2021617572467368374
Link to Paper – arxiv.org/pdf/2602.14350
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Inequality Rises With the Expansion of the Sample Space
Link to Post on X – x.com/nntaleb/status/2015045285223838106
Links to Paper mentioned
On the Super-Additivity and Estimation Biases of Quantile Contributions – https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791
Gini estimation under infinite variance – https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.01370
