Link to Paper – Half of a Coin: Negative Probabilities
Category: Academic
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Conjecture Tested: Experiment Shows Results of Trading with News in Advance
Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616
The Fourth Quadrant: a Map of the Limits of Statistics
Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the “logic of science”; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can’t be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but… let’s not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let’s face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).
Link to essay – www.edge.org/conversation/the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Kelly Criterion and Mutual Information in Investment Settings
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Cites JAMA Study to Reinforce Critique of Statistical Gerrymandering in Drug Recommendations
Link to JAMA study: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821340
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains Why Economists Struggle in Practical Fields
Link to tweet – x.com/nntaleb/status/1810010163270619255
[Twitter/X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains the Research Surge in Developing Countries
Paper: Anatolian genetic ancestry in North Lebanese populations
Lebanon’s rich history as a cultural crossroad spanning millennia has significantly impacted the genetic composition of its population through successive waves of migration and conquests from surrounding regions. Within modern-day Lebanon, the Koura district stands out with its unique cultural foundations, primarily characterized by a notably high concentration of Greek Orthodox Christians compared to the rest of the country. This study investigates whether the prevalence of Greek Orthodoxy in Koura can be attributed to modern Greek heritage or continuous blending resulting from the ongoing influx of refugees and trade interactions with Greece and Anatolia. We analyzed both ancient and modern DNA data from various populations in the region which could have played a role in shaping the current population of Koura using our own and published data. Our findings indicate that the genetic influence stemming directly from modern Greek immigration into the area appears to be limited. While the historical presence of Greek colonies has left its mark on the region’s past, the distinctive character of Koura seems to have been primarily shaped by cultural and political factors, displaying a stronger genetic connection mostly with Anatolia, with affinity to ancient but not modern Greeks.
Link to paper – www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-66191-x.epdf
[YouTube] STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024
TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling. Stephen Wolfram’s discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.
Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Says US Faces a ‘Death Spiral’ of Swelling Debt
Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said the US deficit is swelling to a point that it would take a miracle to reverse the damage.
Read More… [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/nassim-taleb-says-us-faces-a-death-spiral-of-swelling-debt]