Watch today’s Liberty Report w/ @nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb! Black Swans and Interventionistas – @ noon ET on:https://t.co/sooE64nHyS pic.twitter.com/gSp19knwl9
— Ron Paul (@RonPaul) May 19, 2017
.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
Watch today’s Liberty Report w/ @nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb! Black Swans and Interventionistas – @ noon ET on:https://t.co/sooE64nHyS pic.twitter.com/gSp19knwl9
— Ron Paul (@RonPaul) May 19, 2017
Nassim has posted the prologue of Skin in the Game on twitter:
1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish?
(metaprobability).— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes) pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlock pic.twitter.com/0mXzIuw17l
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
(cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections. pic.twitter.com/gbq1pqtkEJ
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
(cont) More expamples pic.twitter.com/LtUKpQrJ3V
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless! pic.twitter.com/zUfnNTnji6
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
Recently on twitter, Nassim shared this chart comparing outcomes with Clinton as president versus Trump. In response to a question about Sanders versus Trump, he tweeted: “Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer.”
He also followed up with these tweets: “Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan.” “2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones.”