Link to Paper – arxiv.org/pdf/2106.14204
[X] Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility (Bitcoin Black Paper)
Category: Economics
[X] The Lydian Stone du Jour: P-Hacking Edition
Covering P HACKING and REGRESSION HACKING Minimum words, just results, the opposite of social science long dissertations with no results.
[X] THE LYDIAN STONE DU JOUR
x.com/nntaleb/status/1894412822198575337
THE LYDIAN STONE DU JOUR
Extracting regression hacking, how much pseudoregression points are expected from m trials.
Next, will get p-hacking.
Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Says Nvidia Rout ‘Is the Beginning’
Black Swan author Nassim Taleb says the steep plunge in Nvidia exposes the equity market’s fragility, while warning of more losses ahead. Speaking to Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak on the sidelines of Miami Hedge Fund Week, Taleb says a drawdown two or three times bigger than Monday’s 17% selloff is “absolutely in line” with what the market should expect.
PROBABILITY DU JOUR: Independent vs. Uncorrelated
Bloomberg: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Fragility of Markets, Political Risk, AI
Nassim Taleb, Black Swan author and Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor, talks about the fragility of markets, how to hedge against geopolitical risks and artificial intelligence. He’s on “Bloomberg Markets.”
[Twitter | X] A Redervation of Székely’s Negative Probability via Fractional Coins
Link to Paper – Half of a Coin: Negative Probabilities
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Conjecture Tested: Experiment Shows Results of Trading with News in Advance
Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616
[YouTube] NASSIM TALEB ON: The Art Of Dentistry
NASSIM TALEB ON: The Art Of Dentistry. Video in Arabic.
The Fourth Quadrant: a Map of the Limits of Statistics
Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the “logic of science”; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can’t be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but… let’s not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let’s face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).
Link to essay – www.edge.org/conversation/the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics