Stephen Wolfram plays the role of Salonnière in this new, ongoing series of intellectual explorations with special guests.
Month: July 2021
[Online] Global Technical Incerto Reading Club goes through the Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Global Technical Incerto Reading Club is going through the Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
They aim to cover: Chapter 10: It is what it is: diagnosing the S&P 500 Chapter 11: Probability Calibration under Fat Tails Our confirmed speakers are @Sharpe_Actuary , @MFergal and @MarcosCarreira.
Everyone is welcome to sign up at meetup.com/global-technical-incerto-reading-club
[YouTube] Explanations for the last video (Difference Between Clinical and Evidence-Based Knowledge)
Explanations for the last video [Difference Between Clinical and Evidence-Based Knowledge]: Why the statistical properties of a group will NOT particularize to any individual member of the group.
[YouTube] Evidence-Based Science & Mistakes in Particularizing the General (Simplified)
1) The law of large numbers (properties of aggregates) works in one direction. Why you can generalize from particulars, never particularize from generals.
2) The difference between clinical, statistical, and risk management approached. Why they don’t scale.
3) Never compare Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents).
[YouTube] Comments on the “Bitcoin Black Paper” (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0)
Erratum: the equation at 3:40 of the video must include the discounting inside the summation (1/1+r)^i
Link to Bitcoin Black Paper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Link to Supplementary Material / Simplifications – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf