Sports Commentary and Fooled by Randomness

Nassim Taleb is a profound thinker and quite mysterious character, and to say his website still looks like it is stuck in the 90’s is probably a compliment. My Google searching left me empty handed as to dedicated site to him so for these reasons I decided to start this website, to serve as an index of his work and appearances around the web, and to do a little bit more blatant promotion of his ideas than he does himself (at least online).

There is plenty of material to cover, for now be sure to checkout his Twitter where he is active, and recently also started back up his Facebook page.


  1. I have one comment and one reservation about Antifragile. The comment relates to profragility and reservation relates to history.
    Every system, organism and institution that is antifragile consist of two types of elements or components. Profragile that seeks fragility and robust. Any new technology or innovation is Profragile and these are needed for growth. The robust elements/comments of the system that have withstand the test of time. So they are the save heaven in an event of black swan. An army is profragile and castle walls robust. I am writing a book on profragility. It explore the characteristic of profragile and why they are essential. You have already identified them but just like there was no word to describe antifragile same is the case for profragile. Banks are fragile, options profragile. There is a big difference between the two. Profragile have huge payoff in case of success but definite losses that are more eminent than a once in a life time success.
    Now something about the history. You wrote that there is no point reading history that is not older than at least fifty years. Here is the catch. As per your own argument in Black Swan, history is smooth out because of human need to have a coherent story. It implies backward thinking as highlighted by the turkey problem. Building on this argument I can safely assume that history is not at all reliable whether its old or new. Older the history is more dangerous it is to be used as a guide as it has been smooth out even more than the recent one.

  2. Hi, I´m brazilian!
    I would like to use a term created by Nassim Taleb in a job that I am building, giving due credit of course. Is there a email so I can better explain what it is, to see if Nassim Taleb allows me to use it?
    Thank you!

  3. I just ran across this article: quantamagazine org/the-grand-unified-theory-of-rogue-waves-20200205/.

    Although I have little math background and at 78 have forgotten most of what I learned, it seems like collecting a huge amount of data (7 terabytes were mentioned in that article about waves in a defined area) may have some practical utility.

    Whether that is the opinion of the good professor is unknown to me. It would be interesting to get NNT’s opinion on the relevance of the information in that article to his notion of market movements and like phenomena.

  4. Dear Mr Taleb,
    I follows you since your book the “Black Swan” and I would love to have your opinion about an idea that is in my head since Covid19 has been completely underestimated.
    >What about to bet of the financial default of USA ? I mean as a country.
    I think this would be the biggest fat tails event that I can imagine.
    An here comes my question : which finance product is suitable to insure for such event ?
    It will be an honour to hear from you. It
    PS: FYI one of my year resolution is to read again Antifragile in November of every year. Somehow I find always something new to learn.
    Best regards
    RC ( Germany)

  5. Hi Naseem,
    I hope you are very well.
    I enjoyed reading your books and profound insights – especially the significant effect of the improbables in our lives.
    I would highly appreciate your time to look at my modest book, An Exhibition of Existence as it attempts to show evidence on what many people believe as « improbable » !


  6. Also If I may add, that the ultimate “Black Swan” that will break all times records of black swans will be the final discovery that God in fact really exists!

  7. Since I did not find his name in the bibliographies of the Turkish editions of your books, I wanted to share it, assuming you did not read it.

    -The Situation Is Hopeless But Not Serious (The Pursuit of Unhappiness)
    -The Language of Change: Elements of Therapeutic Communication
    -Ultra-Solutions: How to Fail Most Successfully
    -The Invented Reality: How Do We Know What We Believe We Know?
    -How Real Is Real?: Communication, Disinformation, Confusion
    -Munchhausen’s Pigtail, or Psychotherapy & “Reality” Essays and Lectures
    by Paul Watzlawick

    Best regards,

  8. Anti-fragile, the best book I have ever read. Direct, clear and concise. Made me think and change the perspective of things. A game changer. Thanks Taleb.

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