Emi Gal, founder and CEO of Ezra, sat down with Nassim Taleb to talk about cancer, heart disease, full body MRIs, and more. The conversation covers why Nassim gets full body MRIs, the legitimate concerns around incidental findings, and what the data actually says about early cancer detection.
Category: General
[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 1

Max Heart Rate
When you do a stress test, say the Bruce Protocol, the administering doctor relies on something called the “age predicted maximum heart rate”, usually 220 minus your age, or some formula slightly more complicated but equally unrigorous. Once you reach that point, they stop, depriving you of potent information — at low risk since they are monitoring via live ECG your cardiac strain. In fact, such an estimation based on age, no matter how complicated its computation, appears to explain only 20% of the variation between individuals. I believe that explained variations are even smaller for, clearly, in the graph above, to the right, samples above 55 are sparce and the expected maxima would be considerably higher.
I noticed this myself as I am easily able to reach the 170s without feeling strain, guessing the effective max would be in the 180s (next test, but would require some live ECG for caution).
Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability
[X] Year in Review 2024
Paper: Anatolian genetic ancestry in North Lebanese populations
Lebanon’s rich history as a cultural crossroad spanning millennia has significantly impacted the genetic composition of its population through successive waves of migration and conquests from surrounding regions. Within modern-day Lebanon, the Koura district stands out with its unique cultural foundations, primarily characterized by a notably high concentration of Greek Orthodox Christians compared to the rest of the country. This study investigates whether the prevalence of Greek Orthodoxy in Koura can be attributed to modern Greek heritage or continuous blending resulting from the ongoing influx of refugees and trade interactions with Greece and Anatolia. We analyzed both ancient and modern DNA data from various populations in the region which could have played a role in shaping the current population of Koura using our own and published data. Our findings indicate that the genetic influence stemming directly from modern Greek immigration into the area appears to be limited. While the historical presence of Greek colonies has left its mark on the region’s past, the distinctive character of Koura seems to have been primarily shaped by cultural and political factors, displaying a stronger genetic connection mostly with Anatolia, with affinity to ancient but not modern Greeks.
Link to paper – www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-66191-x.epdf
[Upcoming] A Conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2024)

Event Invitation: A Conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Hosted by: The Institute of Political Science at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut and Kulluna Irada
Event Title: From Ponzi to Antifragility, 4 Years Later
Featuring: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Topics: Gaza, Centralization, the Lebanese Economy, and Conspirationism
Moderator: Karim Emile Bitar
Date and Time: Thursday, January 11, 2024, at 6 PM
Location: Gulbenkian Auditorium, USJ Social Sciences Campus, Huvelin Street, Achrafieh
Virtual Attendance via Zoom:
- Meeting ID: 897 7958 0201
- Passcode: 588528
Join us for an insightful evening with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, discussing critical contemporary issues in a conversation moderated by Karim Emile Bitar.
[The Guardian] The UK’s coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn’t

Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam
When, along with applied systems scientist Dr Joe Norman, we first reacted to coronavirus on 25 January with the publication of an academic note urging caution, the virus had reportedly infected fewer than 2,000 people worldwide and fewer than 60 people were dead. That number need not have been so high.
Link: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/…cummings
[Medium] Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You

The U.S. government is enacting measures to save the airlines, Boeing, and similarly affected corporations. While we clearly insist that these companies must be saved, there may be ethical, economic, and structural problems associated with the details of the execution. As a matter of fact, if you study the history of bailouts, there will be.
Link: https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-socialism-the…3b31a67bff4a
Paper: Option Pricing Under Power Laws: A Robust Heuristic
Bloomberg: Nassim says Fed Should Do ‘Minimum Harm’ and Expresses His Concerns About Deficits
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, scientific adviser at Universa Investments, discusses risks facing financial markets, U.S. monetary policy and his concerns about deficits with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Link to video – https://www.bloomberg.com/n…
Medium: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle

Background : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning difficulties) as well as, to a lesser extent, a form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects. It is via negativa not via positiva. It is meant to select exam-takers, paper shufflers, obedient IYIs (intellectuals yet idiots), ill adapted for “real life”.
Link: https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle