.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
A continuation of Nassim and Yaneer’s regular conversation. In this video, they discuss:
1) The errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics. Why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks?
2) How evidence-based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks?
3) The risks of morbidity must be accounted for.
4) How the dangers of vaccines do not scale.
Incompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face Covering
SIX ERRORS: 1) missing the compounding effects of masks, 2) missing the nonlinearity of the probability of infection to viral exposures, 3) missing absence of evidence (of benefits of mask wearing) for evidence of absence (of benefits of mask wearing), 4) missing the point that people do not need governments to produce facial covering: they can make their own, 5) missing the compounding effects of statistical signals, 6) ignoring the Non-Aggression Principle by pseudolibertarians (masks are also to protect others from you; it’s a multiplicative process: every person you infect will infect others).
In fact masks (and faceshields) supplemented with constraints of superspreader events can save us trillions of dollars in future lockdowns (and lawsuits) and be potentially sufficient (under adequate compliance) to stem the pandemic. Bureaucrats do not like simple solutions.
Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade
Link to Nassim’s Review of The Count of Monte Cristo by Alexandre Dumas on Amazon.com
You can get English subtitles by:
Step 1. Click on Settings (gear icon), Subtitles/CC and select French (auto-generated).
Step 2. Go to Settings again, Subtitles/CC and then select Auto-translate and then select English.
It should then show as “Subtitles/CC (2) French (auto-generated) >> English“
Nassim Taleb joins EndCoronavirus.org Founder, Yaneer Bar-Yam, for a Town Hall discussion.
Website: EndCoronavirus.org
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In this conversation, Nassim Taleb and Dr. Pasquale Cirillo speak about their paper on the tail risk of contagious diseases and other related things.
The paper will be available on this link on Monday, May 25 at 5pm (CET):
Link to the Paper – Tail risk of contagious diseases
Interview starts at about 1:57:30 of the Facebook video
Moderator: Mr. Nikunj Dalmia (Managing Editor, ET Now)
Link – facebook.com/abcabslmf/videos/243939166875554/
ERRORS 101
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb∗, Pierre Zalloua, and Dan Platt
∗Corresponding author, [email protected] Dec 2019
We discuss the inadequacy of covariances/correlations and other measures in L-2 as relative distance metrics. We propose a computationally simple heuristic to transform a map based on standard principal component analysis (PCA) (when the variables are asymptotically Gaussian) into an entropy-based map where distances are based on mutual information.
PDF Download Link: academia.edu/41442347/Informational…