Category: Writing

The Fourth Quadrant: a Map of the Limits of Statistics

On By In Academic, Economics, Writing

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the “logic of science”; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can’t be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but… let’s not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let’s face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).

Link to essay – www.edge.org/conversation/the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Reiterates His Critique: IQ as Pseudoscience and Its Role in Race Science

On By In Politics, Statements, Twitter, Writing, X

Paper: Anatolian genetic ancestry in North Lebanese populations

On By In Academic, General, Writing

Lebanon’s rich history as a cultural crossroad spanning millennia has significantly impacted the genetic composition of its population through successive waves of migration and conquests from surrounding regions. Within modern-day Lebanon, the Koura district stands out with its unique cultural foundations, primarily characterized by a notably high concentration of Greek Orthodox Christians compared to the rest of the country. This study investigates whether the prevalence of Greek Orthodoxy in Koura can be attributed to modern Greek heritage or continuous blending resulting from the ongoing influx of refugees and trade interactions with Greece and Anatolia. We analyzed both ancient and modern DNA data from various populations in the region which could have played a role in shaping the current population of Koura using our own and published data. Our findings indicate that the genetic influence stemming directly from modern Greek immigration into the area appears to be limited. While the historical presence of Greek colonies has left its mark on the region’s past, the distinctive character of Koura seems to have been primarily shaped by cultural and political factors, displaying a stronger genetic connection mostly with Anatolia, with affinity to ancient but not modern Greeks.

Link to paper – www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-66191-x.epdf

[Medium] A Few Things We Don’t Quite Get About the Levant

On By In Statements, Writing

(First Draft of the Foreword to Pierre Zalloua’s forthcoming book. For comments.)

Some people believe that the Levant is the end of the East and a portal to the West; others describe it as the end of the West and a portal to the East. Those in the first group tend to belong to the main branches of the Islamic faith, while those in the second belong to various Christian Levantine churches. Now, one might think that the two descriptions are equivalent: an intersection, after all, is an intersection. However, by the same mechanism that generates the so-called ‘narcissism of small differences,’ not only are these two statements not equivalent, but they are, in practice, contradictory. It even took a civil war for the Lebanese to understand this fallacy.

Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/a-few-things-we-dont-quite-get-about-the-levant-da6ff702974f

[New Version] Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetic Distance

On By In Twitter, Writing

A new version of the paper using entropy-based Principal Components maps for genetic distance (vs Gaussin correlation-based methods). Applied to the PCA of the entire world population, relative distances are markedly different!

Link to the paper – https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12654.pdf

[Medium] Bitcoin is the Detector of Imbeciles

On By In Statements, Writing

On The Cluster of Charlatans, Zero Interest Rate Virgins, & Crypto Tumors
Interview with Laeticia Strauch-Bonart in L’Express (French magazine), translated.

Last year, 2022 was not of much respite for cryptocurrencies. While bitcoin has lost more than 60% of its value, the entire sector is in crisis, punctuated by various bankruptcies such as those of Terra and FTX. The phenomenon is the consequence, according to scholar and former trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, of the low-interest rate “Disneyland” economy in which we have been living for fifteen years. A “cluster” was formed: Pro-putin, climate and Covid deniers, carnivores, and crypto culties, that Taleb, a former crypto hopeful but a fierce opponent since 2021, has decided to attack head-on.

Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/bitcoin-is-the-detector-of-imbeciles-e5cc5eeccdbf

[Medium] How I write

On By In Statements, Writing

(Preface to the 15th year Italian edition of The Black Swan)

Imet Luca Formenton, Saggiatore’s capo twenty years ago, in April 2002, in the eternal city, in a mozzarella bar-terrace near the parliament. I spoke in highly ungrammatical Italian; he addressed me in impeccable English, a practice we have sort of maintained for twenty years. That was the period when I very badly wanted to satisfy my failed childhood dream to produce literature, but everything conspired to stop me from partaking of that highly protected genus.

Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/how-i-write-8b495eae0330