If you think you will change the behavior of religious people by modifying the theologies, you are committing the standard Weberian fallacy. It is not about the religion; it is about clusters of people who happen to have that religion and their culture.
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management.
We use the COVID-19 pandemic as the background for the discussion and as an example of a phenomenon characterized by a multiplicative nature, and what mitigating policies must result from the statistical properties and associated risks. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. (2020).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an American economist, philosopher and trader of Lebanese origin. In his academic work, he focuses on issues connected with probability, randomness and uncertainty. He is a professor at the University of New York and author of bestsellers: “The Black Swan. The Impact of Highly Improbable”, and “Antifragile. Things That Gain From Disorder”. The Sunday Times has chosen “The Black Swan” as one of the 12 most important books published after World War II.
Date: 19th – 23rd October 2020 9 hours of live streaming every day Streaming link and access code will be given within 24-48 hours before the showtime.