.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
When you catch someone with a shoddy-but-carefully-curated story, Edward Snowden, producing the mother of bad faith arguments (in effect, lying) while, in addition, facilitating a character assassination (and severe cyberharassment), something very, very sinister about the person emerges that can help answer some fundamental yet still hanging questions.
Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/snowden-phony-hence-traitor-86ee41197578
Stephen Wolfram plays the role of Salonnière in this new, ongoing series of intellectual explorations with special guests.
Global Technical Incerto Reading Club is going through the Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
They aim to cover: Chapter 10: It is what it is: diagnosing the S&P 500 Chapter 11: Probability Calibration under Fat Tails Our confirmed speakers are @Sharpe_Actuary , @MFergal and @MarcosCarreira.
Everyone is welcome to sign up at meetup.com/global-technical-incerto-reading-club
Explanations for the last video [Difference Between Clinical and Evidence-Based Knowledge]: Why the statistical properties of a group will NOT particularize to any individual member of the group.
1) The law of large numbers (properties of aggregates) works in one direction. Why you can generalize from particulars, never particularize from generals.
2) The difference between clinical, statistical, and risk management approached. Why they don’t scale.
3) Never compare Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents).
Erratum: the equation at 3:40 of the video must include the discounting inside the summation (1/1+r)^i
Link to Bitcoin Black Paper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Link to Supplementary Material / Simplifications – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
Explained in 4 Minutes
Yedidya Levy briefly discusses some of the reasons Nassim Taleb states that Bitcoin will in fact go to Zero. Nassim recently published a paper titled “Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles.” It is also referred to as #bitcoinblackpaper.
Link to #bitcoinblackpaper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Link to supplementary material – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular —as there are about $10,000$ cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those that claim to hue to the original protocol \cite{nakamoto2009bitcoin} and the one with, by far, the largest market capitalization.
Link to Paper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Answering questions and providing derivations for the #bitcoinblackpaper
Link to Supplementary Material / Simplifications – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
This video is of Nassim’s keynote address at this year’s CoinGeek Conference in Zurich.
Nassim Taleb starts around 6:38:17 of the video