What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What’s her or his failure rate? I didn’t realize that the trick wasn’t in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.
[YouTube] MINI LECTURE 16: On the Absurdity of Standard Genetics Reports
Why reports from genetic firms saying you are 30% Greek, 15% Sicilian, and 5% Martian are complete misrepresentations?
[New Version] Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetic Distance
A new version of the paper using entropy-based Principal Components maps for genetic distance (vs Gaussin correlation-based methods). Applied to the PCA of the entire world population, relative distances are markedly different!
Link to the paper – https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.12654.pdf
[Twitter] Nassim Taleb’s interview with Tucker Carlson when Skin in the Game came out
with Tucker Carlson when Skin in the Game (SITG) came out: Imagine fewer bureaucrats with no SITG, no CIA, a noninterventionist State Dept… In SITG I said that sending State Dept employees to the beach would be better for America & much better for the world.
YouTube video of the interview
You can get the book (Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life) here: Paperback or Hardcover
[Twitter] A mini tutorial explaining the #FooledbyRandomness point
Mistakes often made in the interpretation of R^2 beyond the standard textbook by people who haven’t studied the ‘Fooled by Randomness’ effect on parameters of distribution, particularly when samples are small.
Nassim Taleb announces #RWRI (Real World Risk Workshop) 2024
Workshop organized by the Real World Risk Institute. The workshop is an intense 10-day online program, and the 19th edition will take place from Jun 25- Jul 5, 2024.
[Twitter] Explaining the debt/death spiral
Errata: 30 Trillion not Billions.
Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Says US Faces a ‘Death Spiral’ of Swelling Debt
Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said the US deficit is swelling to a point that it would take a miracle to reverse the damage.
Read More… [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/nassim-taleb-says-us-faces-a-death-spiral-of-swelling-debt]
[YouTube] How the Social Fabric Works: A Conversation With Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Nassim Nicholas Taleb joined Eric Hacopian of CivilNet for a discussion on science, artificial intelligence, and ongoing societal advancements. Gain valuable insights into the workings of the social fabric in this engaging conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
[Upcoming] A Conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2024)
Event Invitation: A Conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Hosted by: The Institute of Political Science at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut and Kulluna Irada
Event Title: From Ponzi to Antifragility, 4 Years Later
Featuring: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Topics: Gaza, Centralization, the Lebanese Economy, and Conspirationism
Moderator: Karim Emile Bitar
Date and Time: Thursday, January 11, 2024, at 6 PM
Location: Gulbenkian Auditorium, USJ Social Sciences Campus, Huvelin Street, Achrafieh
Virtual Attendance via Zoom:
- Meeting ID: 897 7958 0201
- Passcode: 588528
Join us for an insightful evening with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, discussing critical contemporary issues in a conversation moderated by Karim Emile Bitar.