Link to article – Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News
Paper: Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics
Link to Paper – academia.edu/41442347/Informational…
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the Danish Study on Face Masks
Nassim and Yaneer discuss the Danish study on Face Masks published by Bundgaard et al., “Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers.”
HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN THE PRESENCE OF FALSE POSITIVES: THE FLAWS IN THE DANISH MASK STUDY
[Medium] Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander Bogomolny

How do you learn a language? There are two routes; the first is to memorize imperfect verbs, grammatical rules, future vs. past tenses, recite boring context-free sentences, and pass an exam. The second approach consists in going to a bar, struggling a little bit and, out of the need to blend-in and integrate with a fun group of people, then suddenly find yourself able to communicate. In other words, by playing, by being alive as a human being. I personally have never seen anyone learn to speak a language properly by the first route. Also, I have never seen anyone fail to do so by the second one.
Read the complete foreword on Medium.
Get the book on Amazon.
Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Global coronavirus response a case study of government incompetence and denial

In a “Squawk Box” interview, Taleb specifically pointed to the importance of coronavirus testing. While countries have improved their capacity since the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak, Taleb said there has been a failure to develop quick, efficient testing at a scale that can cut off chains of transmission early. It also has the least economic cost, he said.
Link to the interview: cnbc.com/2020/11/02/…
[Medium] Religion, Violence, Tolerance & Progress: Nothing to do with Theology

If you think you will change the behavior of religious people by modifying the theologies, you are committing the standard Weberian fallacy. It is not about the religion; it is about clusters of people who happen to have that religion and their culture.
Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/religion-violence-tolerance-progress-nothing-to-do-with-theology
[YouTube] enlightED 2020: Conversation between Nassim Taleb and Teresa Martín-Retortillo
Conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Executive President of IE Exponential Learning at IE University, Teresa Martín-Retortillo at enlightED Virtual Edition 2020.
starts at 12:45 of the YouTube video.
Paper: On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables
Abstract
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive “evidence based” empiricism and point forecasts for fat-tailed variables, as well as the insufficiency of using naive first-order scientific methods for tail risk management.
We use the COVID-19 pandemic as the background for the discussion and as an example of a phenomenon characterized by a multiplicative nature, and what mitigating policies must result from the statistical properties and associated risks. In doing so, we also respond to the points raised by Ioannidis et al. (2020).
Link to Paper – sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/…
[YouTube] Nassim’s interview with George Buhnici
Nassim Taleb’s Interview with George Buhnici of Cavaleria Com YouTube channel
This one of those videos that will definitely change your perspective on the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of the most pragmatic minds out there and I was honored to interview him. Enjoy!
How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach
Discussion with Dhruv Madeka of the paper: Election Pricing: a Martingale Approach and other related works.
Link to the Paper: Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach