Nassim has posted the prologue of Skin in the Game on twitter:
Category: Twitter
Nassim Criticizes Nate Silver’s Election Predictions on Twitter
1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish?
(metaprobability).— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes) pic.twitter.com/LghTxDRN3b
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016
To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlock pic.twitter.com/0mXzIuw17l
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
(cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections. pic.twitter.com/gbq1pqtkEJ
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
(cont) More expamples pic.twitter.com/LtUKpQrJ3V
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless! pic.twitter.com/zUfnNTnji6
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2016
Nassim Shares Chart Comparing Outcomes with Clinton as President Versus Trump
Recently on twitter, Nassim shared this chart comparing outcomes with Clinton as president versus Trump. In response to a question about Sanders versus Trump, he tweeted: “Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer.”
He also followed up with these tweets: “Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan.” “2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer ones.”