[YouTube] COVID Risk Conversation: Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim Nicholas Taleb

A continuation of Nassim and Yaneer’s regular conversation. In this video, they discuss:

1) The errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics. Why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks?

2) How evidence-based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks?

3) The risks of morbidity must be accounted for.

4) How the dangers of vaccines do not scale.

[YouTube] Ellipticality (Technical)

Modern financial theory assumes that distributions are elliptical. We show what happens if the assumption doesn’t hold. And the assumption doesn’t hold.

Diversification does NOT reduce risks in the financial market; it causes near-certain long term blowups under any leverage.

[EndCoronavirus.Org] Town Hall discussion with Yaneer Bar-Yam

Nassim Taleb joins EndCoronavirus.org Founder, Yaneer Bar-Yam, for a Town Hall discussion.
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Never use Single-point Estimates for Pandemics

Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.