The genetics of twin studies have a bias showing more heredity than in reality, owing to a statistical artifact. The twin studies for heredity are based on comparing the correlation between 2 identical twins minus that between 2 fraternal ones (assumed to be sharing half their genes). The use of fraternal twins as control is assumed to extract the “environmental” factors. Problem: Correlation is conditional and psychologists think it is unconditional. We show how the math is entirely different. The core error is that genes and environment are not separable and additive.
[YouTube] Black Swan Author Taleb on Markets, Interest Rates, Bubbles, Investing
Universa Investments Senior Scientific Advisor Nassim Taleb says the stock market is way too overvalued given current interest rates, and the road back to normal will be “very painful for some.” Taleb spoke exclusively to Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak at an investor day in Miami on Thursday. Earlier, Universa Investments told clients that ballooning debts across the global economy are poised to wreak havoc on markets rivaling the Great Depression.
[YouTube] MINI TUTORIAL: How to look at risk ratios & deal with disinformation: Saturated Fats & Nina Teicholz
Ms Nina Ticholz backed up her saturated fat propaganda with a major paper showing that saturated fats don’t cause cardiovascular disease that was “ignored by mainstream media”. It turns out the paper shows the opposite of what she claims. I show how to read risk ratios, confidence intervals, etc.
A case study in Non-replicability of a Medical paper [YouTube]
A case study in non-replicability of a medical paper. I discuss it with Dr. Fouad Fayad from U.S.J. in Lebanon. Details are in Retraction Watch.
Apparently, the only reply to his case by the study’s lead author is of the fact-free data-free sort “he doesn’t like me” which does not appear to have a statistical explanation.
Note: Retraction Watch did a great job presenting facts, and the attempt to retaliate against Dr. Fayad. Note that the 4 expert reports were not attached. Also, note that the paper violated FDA rules (and those of the corresponding European agency).
[YouTube] No, COVID is not an “old” person’s problem
[YouTube] QUANTITATIVE FINANCE 2: Deriving Black-Sholes via Itô’s lemma (the dynamic hedging approach)
DYNAMIC HEDGING: Deriving Black-Sholes via Itô’s lemma.
[YouTube] Why Correlation is Unreliable
At the 2022 Greenwich Economic Forum-Miami, Black Swan author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why correlation is unreliable as a due diligence tool. Coming as it does during an ongoing pandemic and in the middle of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Taleb also discusses Wars and Pandemics and puts them into their proper risk buckets.
[YouTube] Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness
We are not naturally good at dealing with information.
Disinformation artists confuse you by focusing on noise over signal by playing on saliency, the same effect as the one discussed in Fooled by Randomness. We mistake the particular for the general, details for the ensemble, and noise for signal –all from the same mental bias.
[YouTube] QUANT FINANCE 1 – Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1
The first part explaining the Bachelier equation and how options were priced traditionally.
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the COVID situation with some Disagreements
Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim discuss the COVID-19 situation with some disagreements.