Uncertainty, Certainty and what to do when there is Systemic Risk

Third conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is a systemic risk; what not to do when a truck is headed your way. How acting early would have cost less? They also discuss:

  • John Ioannidis recent post “we are making decisions without reliable data”
  • Why we should make decisions without reliable data & use precautionary principles
  • How the costs would be so much smaller if we would have acted earlier.

Jan 26 Coronavirus Paper (PDF) – Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note, New England Complex Systems Institute (January 26, 2020).

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Nassim explains the Kelly criterion

Nassim explains the Kelly criterion and illustrates why “risk aversion” in Behavioral Finance is Micky Mouse(™) Science.

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[YouTube] Nassim on Market, Crypto, and Gold

Nassim Nicholas Taleb in an interaction with Ami Shah of ETMarkets.com on the sidelines of Times Network India Economic Conclave talks about what makes him bullish on gold, why he’s still betting on crypto, and why he doesn’t invest in India.

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[YouTube] Nassim Taleb Lecture: Don’t be fooled! The truth about science technology education and wealth

In this fantastic lecture at the end of August 2019 at the WorldSkills Conference in Kazan, Russia, he addressed some very interesting points:

✅ The importance of trial and error for the development of technology.
✅ Theory does not allow interaction with uncertainty.
✅ Theoretical knowledge is inferior to the knowledge gained from experience.
✅ We get smarter when we perform, not just when we sit and think.
✅ People who use trial-and-error are more successful than those who just dedicate themselves to designing, writing formulas, and reasoning in theory.
✅ Businesses that make small, cheap mistakes can end up making a mistake that will make them big.
✅ People involved in technology do not write books. The books are written by teachers. But the real heroes didn’t come from the academic world, they didn’t have time to discuss what they were doing.
✅ Do not try to teach birds to fly. The world does not develop from top to bottom.
✅ Industrial Revolution and Cybernetics did not come from academia and science but from people without formal study.
✅ Formal education does not generate wealth for countries.
✅ First, they must get rich and only then invest in this type of education (If you care about Brazil!)
✅ South Korea and Switzerland first became rich with the technical skills of their people and later invested in formal education.