The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. “Real tails” do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails. Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced “Ber-noo-yi” not “Ber-noo-li”, much like consigliere is pronounced “consiyyere”.
Category: Videos
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 4
Topics Covered:
- Geoengineering
- Mao’s Four Pest Problem
- Brexit
- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government
- The “LongTermism” nonsense of SBF
- The Final Chapter
[YouTube] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Market Sell-Offs
Nassim Taleb, Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor and ‘The Black Swan’ author, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the market sell-off, the Fed’s inflation fight, interest rate outlook, bitcoin’s volatility, and more.
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Dismisses Labeling S&P 500’s Worst Day in Two Years as a ‘Black Swan’ Event
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 3
- Why Ilmanen-style “simulations” of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of:
- The need to extrapolate extremes.
- The Niederhoffer problem.
- The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 2
+The Turkey Problem
+ Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans
+ Meeting Kahneman
+ The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 1
Scott Patterson discusses with Nassim N Taleb his book Chaos Kings, chapter by chapter. This is Part 1.
[YouTube] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Investment, Hedging, and Mishedging | AIM Summit London 2024
“Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Investment, Hedging, and Mishedging” at AIM Summit London Edition 2024 Speaker Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Author, The Black Swan; Distinguished Scientific Advisor, Universa Investments L.P. Moderator Julia Chatterley – Anchor and Correspondent, CNN International
[YouTube] STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024
TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling. Stephen Wolfram’s discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.
[YouTube] Nassim Taleb on Stocks Over Bonds
CNBC: The Exchange, Nassim Taleb, May 20, 2024
