Category: Statements

[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 2

On By In Academic, General, Statements

Abstract: risk factors for LDL/ApoB underestimate the risk factor for Lp(a) positive subjects and overestimate for Lp(a) negative ones, a case of base-rate fallacy.

I am just using basic probabilistic logic here.

Risks factors for ASCVD from LDL (or ApoB) levels are computed for a general population which includes people with low and high Lp(a) levels. Now if having a high Lp(a) increases the cardiac risk over the baseline (up to 2-3 times!) and the proportion of subjects with high Lp(a) is between 15 and 28% of the population, then, necessarily, those with low Lp(a) will have, for a given level of LDL, a considerably lower risk and many might be treated unnecessarily.

The risk factor for nonLp(a) can be ~ 30% lower! Statins don’t come for free. There are hidden and less hidden side effects.

Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability-284

Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Warns to Hedge Against Crash as Debt Crisis Looms

On By In Economics, Statements

(Bloomberg) — author Nassim Taleb said investors should insure against a stock-market crash as structural issues such as the US debt burden threaten to derail an otherwise unstoppable rally.

Even with US stocks making multiple record highs and corporate profits surging, Taleb, a distinguished scientist for hedge fund Universa Investments, warns that the real danger now comes from visible risks, so-called “white swans,” that most people ignore until it’s too late.

Read the full article: finance.yahoo.com/news/nassim-taleb-warns-hedge

[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 1

On By In Academic, General, Statements

Max Heart Rate

When you do a stress test, say the Bruce Protocol, the administering doctor relies on something called the “age predicted maximum heart rate”, usually 220 minus your age, or some formula slightly more complicated but equally unrigorous. Once you reach that point, they stop, depriving you of potent information — at low risk since they are monitoring via live ECG your cardiac strain. In fact, such an estimation based on age, no matter how complicated its computation, appears to explain only 20% of the variation between individuals. I believe that explained variations are even smaller for, clearly, in the graph above, to the right, samples above 55 are sparce and the expected maxima would be considerably higher.

I noticed this myself as I am easily able to reach the 170s without feeling strain, guessing the effective max would be in the 180s (next test, but would require some live ECG for caution).

Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability

[Medium] The World in Which We Live Now

On By In Conferences, Economics, Politics, Statements
The World in Which We Live Now

Lecture at the Annual Meeting of the Ron Paul Institute, 2025

Friends, I have seven points. Why seven? Because I’ve been reading too much Babylonian history recently.

FROM CONNECTIVITY TO TECHNOFEUDALISM

The first one is about concentration, a distinctive feature of the modern world, often tied to what I called the Black Swan problem. We now see winner-take-all effects everywhere, owing to connectivity. Imagine an island with many species but a high density per square meter. Compare that to a continent, where opening up space leads to fewer species per meter because some will eventually dominate. This mirrors cultural and economic life today.

Continue reading on Medium: nntaleb.medium.com/the-world-in-which-we-live