Link to Post on X – https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1904526070193275295
We’ll update this post with the Zoom link as soon as it’s available.
[X] The Implications of Heavy Tailed Distributions
Category: Academic
[X] Maximum Ignorance Probability with Application to Error Rates and Rare Events
Link to post – x.com/nntaleb/status/1892340170109653096
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb to Co-Teach Thick Tail Statistics at the American University of Beirut
[X] The Shortest Foreword on Antifragile for Two Textbooks
The foreword accompanies the following textbooks:
- Applied Antifragility in Technical Systems: From Principles to Applications
Authors:- Cristian Axenie
- Meisam Akbarzadeh
- Michail A. Makridis
- Matteo Saveriano
- Alexandru Stancu
- Applied Antifragility in Natural Systems: From Principles to Applications
Authors:- Cristian Axenie
- Roman Bauer
- Oliver López Corona
- Jeffrey West
PROBABILITY DU JOUR: Independent vs. Uncorrelated
[X] Foreword to a textbook on Antifragility by Jeffrey West et al.
Writing the foreword to a textbook on Antifragility by @mathoncbro et al: ANTIFRAGILITY is not a rediscovery of hormesis, but a mathematical framework uniting classes of phenomena and, centrally, transferring from the dose-response to the probabilistic domains.
[Twitter | X] A Redervation of Székely’s Negative Probability via Fractional Coins
Link to Paper – Half of a Coin: Negative Probabilities
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Conjecture Tested: Experiment Shows Results of Trading with News in Advance
Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616
The Fourth Quadrant: a Map of the Limits of Statistics
Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the “logic of science”; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can’t be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but… let’s not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let’s face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).
Link to essay – www.edge.org/conversation/the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics