Never use Single-point Estimates for Pandemics

ERRORS 101
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.

Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics

Nassim Nicholas Taleb∗, Pierre Zalloua, and Dan Platt
∗Corresponding author, [email protected] Dec 2019

We discuss the inadequacy of covariances/correlations and other measures in L-2 as relative distance metrics. We propose a computationally simple heuristic to transform a map based on standard principal component analysis (PCA) (when the variables are asymptotically Gaussian) into an entropy-based map where distances are based on mutual information.

PDF Download Link: academia.edu/41442347/Informational…

[YouTube] On Warnings over Systemic Risks from Global Pandemics

Nassim Taleb, Universa Investment’s scientific advisor and distinguished professor of risk engineering at NYU, warned of an acute virus spreading throughout the planet in his 2007 book “The Black Swan.” In January, he also warned of the systemic risks of the coronavirus pandemic. He joins “Squawk Box” to discuss.

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[YouTube] Nassim Taleb Lecture: Don’t be fooled! The truth about science technology education and wealth

In this fantastic lecture at the end of August 2019 at the WorldSkills Conference in Kazan, Russia, he addressed some very interesting points:

✅ The importance of trial and error for the development of technology.
✅ Theory does not allow interaction with uncertainty.
✅ Theoretical knowledge is inferior to the knowledge gained from experience.
✅ We get smarter when we perform, not just when we sit and think.
✅ People who use trial-and-error are more successful than those who just dedicate themselves to designing, writing formulas, and reasoning in theory.
✅ Businesses that make small, cheap mistakes can end up making a mistake that will make them big.
✅ People involved in technology do not write books. The books are written by teachers. But the real heroes didn’t come from the academic world, they didn’t have time to discuss what they were doing.
✅ Do not try to teach birds to fly. The world does not develop from top to bottom.
✅ Industrial Revolution and Cybernetics did not come from academia and science but from people without formal study.
✅ Formal education does not generate wealth for countries.
✅ First, they must get rich and only then invest in this type of education (If you care about Brazil!)
✅ South Korea and Switzerland first became rich with the technical skills of their people and later invested in formal education.