## [YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 3

• Why Ilmanen-style “simulations” of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of:
1. The need to extrapolate extremes.
2. The Niederhoffer problem.
• The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.

## [YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 2

+The Turkey Problem
+ Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans
+ Meeting Kahneman
+ The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.

## [YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 1

Scott Patterson discusses with Nassim N Taleb his book Chaos Kings, chapter by chapter. This is Part 1.

## [YouTube] STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024

TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling. Stephen Wolfram’s discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.

## [YouTube] MINI LECTURE 18 (MORE TECHNICAL): How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo Simulations for a set dimensionality

How to build by tinkering with a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations for a given dimensionality.

## [YouTube] MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)

What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What’s her or his failure rate? I didn’t realize that the trick wasn’t in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.

## [YouTube] MINI LECTURE 16: On the Absurdity of Standard Genetics Reports

Why reports from genetic firms saying you are 30% Greek, 15% Sicilian, and 5% Martian are complete misrepresentations?

## [YouTube] MINI LECTURE 15 – Conditional vs. unconditional correlation: twin studies overestimate heredity

The genetics of twin studies have a bias showing more heredity than in reality, owing to a statistical artifact. The twin studies for heredity are based on comparing the correlation between 2 identical twins minus that between 2 fraternal ones (assumed to be sharing half their genes). The use of fraternal twins as control is assumed to extract the “environmental” factors. Problem: Correlation is conditional and psychologists think it is unconditional. We show how the math is entirely different. The core error is that genes and environment are not separable and additive.

## [YouTube] First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical)

A first, very introductory presentation of fragility as linked to both nonlinearity and dislike of variations. Antifragility is almost the opposite, limited to a specific range of variations.

Explains:

• Why everything fragile must be concave.
• The medical S curve.
• Why harm to the climate is necessarily nonlinear in dose response.
• How hospitals can be overcrowded unless there are redundancies.

Further discussions will be more technical.