.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
1) The law of large numbers (properties of aggregates) works in one direction. Why you can generalize from particulars, never particularize from generals.
2) The difference between clinical, statistical, and risk management approached. Why they don’t scale.
3) Never compare Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents).
Erratum: the equation at 3:40 of the video must include the discounting inside the summation (1/1+r)^i
Link to Bitcoin Black Paper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Link to Supplementary Material / Simplifications – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
Explained in 4 Minutes
Yedidya Levy briefly discusses some of the reasons Nassim Taleb states that Bitcoin will in fact go to Zero. Nassim recently published a paper titled “Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles.” It is also referred to as #bitcoinblackpaper.
Link to #bitcoinblackpaper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Link to supplementary material – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular —as there are about $10,000$ cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those that claim to hue to the original protocol \cite{nakamoto2009bitcoin} and the one with, by far, the largest market capitalization.
Link to Paper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Answering questions and providing derivations for the #bitcoinblackpaper
Link to Supplementary Material / Simplifications – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
This video is of Nassim’s keynote address at this year’s CoinGeek Conference in Zurich.
Nassim Taleb starts around 6:38:17 of the video
LONDON, May 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — CoinGeek Conference is created to foster enterprise blockchain adoption and support technology to enable a new data ecosystem. Doing something that has never been done before requires opening doors to experts with many differing viewpoints, past conferences brought in the likes of Wikipedia Founder Jimmy Wales who had previously expressed the opinion that he would never allow Bitcoin to be used on his platform.
With the goal of hearing diverse opinions that spawn meaningful discussions, CoinGeek Zurich (June 8-10) can now confirm that both Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Nicholas Taleb will address those assembled on and offline with their thoughts, on where the value should come from in Blockchain and Digital Currencies.
Register for this virtual event for free at this link – https://coingeekconference.6connex.eu/event/Zurich2021/register
Power laws, extremely simplified.
decafquest.com
The course will be co-taught by:
Here’s a sample class on Stoicism from an Introduction to Philosophy online course:
Here’s a talk by Philippe titled: Three Philosophical Lessons from Modern Physics:
You will receive the link to the sessions a few days before the course starts.
Those based in Lebanon can make the payment via Bank transfer (please contact me to provide you with the details).
Since we are not an institution, you will not be able to claim credits for the course. Many of you might also already be busy with your jobs and daily routine; as a result, we won’t be assigning any homework, exams, or papers. However, if any of you wishes to be assessed on the course material covered, we can arrange for the proper method and format in private.
The sessions will be recorded and uploaded to the DecafQuest YouTube channel as hidden. The links will be made available on google classroom to those registered.
This series will serve as an introduction to the traditional philosophical problems about the structure of reality and our attempts at understanding it. It surveys a variety of topics in metaphysics and epistemology through selected essays largely free of technical terminology. The concepts covered in this first course are perception, skepticism, time and mind.
Discussions will mainly revolve around the following questions: does sense perception enable us to gain knowledge about the world? can we be certain about the existence of the external world or the existence of things outside of us must be accepted merely on faith? What do we mean when we say that time passes? Are past and future events real? What is the nature of the mind? Is it non-physical or a mere product of brain processes?
L1: Perception
L2: Skepticism
L3: Time
L4: Mind
L5: TBA Q&A with Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Trishank Karthik Kuppusamy
Link to registration – https://gumroad.com/l/knowledge-reality
We saw that 1) many metrics are stochastic, 2) what is stochastic can be hacked. This is the simplification of my work showing that “p-values are not p-values”, i.e. highly sample dependent, with a skewed distribution. For instance, for a “true” P value of .11, 53% of observations will show less than .05. This allows for hacking: in a few trials, a researcher can get a fake p-value of .01.
Paper is here and in Chapter 19 of SCOFT (Statistical Conseq of Fat Tails): Link to paper – A Short Note on P-Value Hacking