Quick presentation of drawdowns and the necessity to use logarithms for returns.
[YouTube] Path dependence in 3 minutes
Explaining path dependence and maximum drawdown. I made a mistake in terminology. What I called max drawdown is a local or “window drawdown” or “peak to the subsequent valley”. The real max drawdown is the one that goes from the peak to 80.
[Twitter] Maximum Ignorance Probability, with Application to Surgery’s Error Rates
A maximum entropy alternative to Bayesian methods for the estimation of independent Bernouilli sums.
[YouTube] Simpson’s Paradox & Its Exploitation by Covid Sociopaths
In every age bracket, the vaccinated live longer than the unvaccinated. However as a group, the unvaccinated appear to have a longer life expectancy. This is because the vaccinated tend to be older (hence more likely to die). I explain Simpson’s Paradox in general.
Note: I used the vaccinated/unvaccinated ratio for 50-60 vs 10-20 of Oct 2021, so don’t bug me if it rose since; no effect on the point so long as there is an inequality.
[YouTube] Supply Chain: The Convexity in 2 ½ minutes
An antifragility tutorial, with application to supply chains.
On Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Its Mismeasurement
HRV appears to be ill-defined in papers and regressions; using logged variables fixes the problem.
Link to paper – fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/on-heart-rate-variability-mismeasurement/
Nassim completes 3rd edition of The Bed of Procrustes
Nassim tweeted that he added more aphorisms on the 3rd edition of his book, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms.
The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms is a philosophy book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb written in the aphoristic style. It was first released on November 30, 2010 by Random House. An updated edition was released on October 26, 2016 that includes fifty percent more material than the 2010 edition.
[YouTube] Detecting Quackery in a Psychology Paper
A simple case study where model error shows the claims in a paper published in a “prestigious” psychology journal to be false. Why worry about low R^2.
[Medium] Snowden, Phony hence Traitor?
When you catch someone with a shoddy-but-carefully-curated story, Edward Snowden, producing the mother of bad faith arguments (in effect, lying) while, in addition, facilitating a character assassination (and severe cyberharassment), something very, very sinister about the person emerges that can help answer some fundamental yet still hanging questions.
Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/snowden-phony-hence-traitor-86ee41197578
[YouTube] A Conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Stephen Wolfram at the Wolfram Summer School 2021
Stephen Wolfram plays the role of Salonnière in this new, ongoing series of intellectual explorations with special guests.