[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 2

On By In Academic, General, Statements

Abstract: risk factors for LDL/ApoB underestimate the risk factor for Lp(a) positive subjects and overestimate for Lp(a) negative ones, a case of base-rate fallacy.

I am just using basic probabilistic logic here.

Risks factors for ASCVD from LDL (or ApoB) levels are computed for a general population which includes people with low and high Lp(a) levels. Now if having a high Lp(a) increases the cardiac risk over the baseline (up to 2-3 times!) and the proportion of subjects with high Lp(a) is between 15 and 28% of the population, then, necessarily, those with low Lp(a) will have, for a given level of LDL, a considerably lower risk and many might be treated unnecessarily.

The risk factor for nonLp(a) can be ~ 30% lower! Statins don’t come for free. There are hidden and less hidden side effects.

Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability-284