.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
When you catch someone with a shoddy-but-carefully-curated story, Edward Snowden, producing the mother of bad faith arguments (in effect, lying) while, in addition, facilitating a character assassination (and severe cyberharassment), something very, very sinister about the person emerges that can help answer some fundamental yet still hanging questions.
Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/snowden-phony-hence-traitor-86ee41197578
This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular —as there are about $10,000$ cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those that claim to hue to the original protocol \cite{nakamoto2009bitcoin} and the one with, by far, the largest market capitalization.
Link to Paper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Answering questions and providing derivations for the #bitcoinblackpaper
Link to Supplementary Material / Simplifications – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
We saw that 1) many metrics are stochastic, 2) what is stochastic can be hacked. This is the simplification of my work showing that “p-values are not p-values”, i.e. highly sample dependent, with a skewed distribution. For instance, for a “true” P value of .11, 53% of observations will show less than .05. This allows for hacking: in a few trials, a researcher can get a fake p-value of .01.
Paper is here and in Chapter 19 of SCOFT (Statistical Conseq of Fat Tails): Link to paper – A Short Note on P-Value Hacking
A maximally simplified presentation of how metrics are random variables, and how they can be gamed. Uncorrelated variables will produce a correlation in samples.
The Gates Foundation is financing genetically modified mosquitoes to control natural mosquitoes. This quick video:
1) Discusses the Four Pest Campaign by Mao that helped kill 15-50 Million people around 1960.
2) Explains why genetic modification has nothing to do with natural selection or animal breeding.
Scientism is not science.
Santa Marina — Karl Popper — Herman Hesse’s Sidharta — Mutua Muli — Porsche’s no substitute
Santa Marina
In my ancestral village in the Northern Levant, on top of a hill, stands a church dedicated to Santa Marina. Marina is a local saint, though, characteristically, some other traditions claim her –such as Bithynia or other Anatolian provinces of the Eastern Roman Empire.
Read the complete foreword on Medium.
Get the book on Amazon.
A maximally intuitive presentation on what correlation is not, with maximally simplified concepts. [Note that I improvise 100% and I don’t prepare] There is a more technical lecture to come.
The technical paper is here: Fooled by Correlation: Common Misinterpretations in Social “Science”
The CLT allows anyone (including ignorant economists and psychologists) to do statistics by using prepackaged recipes coming from the Gaussian. What are the foundations? How does it work? Where does it not work?
Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.
SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL, 1 (in the series where we break down concepts intuitively):
Before we talk about correlation, let’s discuss standard deviation, its analog in dimension 1. People don’t get while using it as a metric for deviation!
See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications