Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb on Inflation, Global Financial Markets & Bitcoin Isn’t Good for Money Laundering

In this discussion, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a renowned scholar and risk analyst, was interviewed by Tom Keene at the Bloomberg Invest New York 2023 event. Taleb discussed a variety of pressing financial matters, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, central bank interest rates, and the future of finance.

Taleb argued that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are inefficient for transactions, are losing their appeal to illegal actors, and are vulnerable to be replaced by federal digital currencies. He also warned about the dangerous complacency and misunderstanding of risk in the financial world, citing the unexpected collapse of Swiss banks and the rapid rise in inflation that caught central banks off guard. He argued that central banks should gradually adjust interest rates and should not be seen as the ultimate solution to economic problems. Finally, Taleb discussed the future of finance, predicting higher and more stable interest rates that are more in line with historical norms, and emphasizing the importance of caution in the face of unpredictable market events.

[YouTube] MINI LECTURE 15 – Conditional vs. unconditional correlation: twin studies overestimate heredity

The genetics of twin studies have a bias showing more heredity than in reality, owing to a statistical artifact. The twin studies for heredity are based on comparing the correlation between 2 identical twins minus that between 2 fraternal ones (assumed to be sharing half their genes). The use of fraternal twins as control is assumed to extract the “environmental” factors. Problem: Correlation is conditional and psychologists think it is unconditional. We show how the math is entirely different. The core error is that genes and environment are not separable and additive.

[YouTube] Black Swan Author Taleb on Markets, Interest Rates, Bubbles, Investing

Universa Investments Senior Scientific Advisor Nassim Taleb says the stock market is way too overvalued given current interest rates, and the road back to normal will be “very painful for some.” Taleb spoke exclusively to Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak at an investor day in Miami on Thursday. Earlier, Universa Investments told clients that ballooning debts across the global economy are poised to wreak havoc on markets rivaling the Great Depression.

A case study in Non-replicability of a Medical paper [YouTube]

A case study in non-replicability of a medical paper. I discuss it with Dr. Fouad Fayad from U.S.J. in Lebanon. Details are in Retraction Watch.

Apparently, the only reply to his case by the study’s lead author is of the fact-free data-free sort “he doesn’t like me” which does not appear to have a statistical explanation.

Note: Retraction Watch did a great job presenting facts, and the attempt to retaliate against Dr. Fayad. Note that the 4 expert reports were not attached. Also, note that the paper violated FDA rules (and those of the corresponding European agency).

[YouTube] Why Correlation is Unreliable

At the 2022 Greenwich Economic Forum-Miami, Black Swan author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why correlation is unreliable as a due diligence tool. Coming as it does during an ongoing pandemic and in the middle of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Taleb also discusses Wars and Pandemics and puts them into their proper risk buckets.

[YouTube] Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness

We are not naturally good at dealing with information.

Disinformation artists confuse you by focusing on noise over signal by playing on saliency, the same effect as the one discussed in Fooled by Randomness. We mistake the particular for the general, details for the ensemble, and noise for signal –all from the same mental bias.