On his Facebook page, Nassim gives us the heads-up about a public lecture called Antifragility: Gaining From Volatility, Stress, and Disorder that he will be giving in Singapore on Wednesday, September 24th at the National Library. It’s free but you need to register on the library’s website to reserve your seat.
Nassim Taleb recently tweeted this photo of an index card that outlines “sins to remember.” And presumably avoid.
Abstract: Proof that under constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option is risk neutral under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets. The heuristics used by traders for centuries are both more robust and more rigorous than held in the economics literature.
What can we learn from Mr Dawkins’ errors and misuse of probability?
Nassim has posted a link on his Facebook Page Chapter 1 of the Technical Companion for the INCERTO: An Introduction to Fat Tails and Turkey Problems: