On his Facebook page, Nassim gives us the heads-up about a public lecture called Antifragility: Gaining From Volatility, Stress, and Disorder that he will be giving in Singapore on Wednesday, September 24th at the National Library. It’s free but you need to register on the library’s website to reserve your seat.
Nassim recently posted a document called “Skepticism” on Facebook.
He had this to say about it:
Something people don’t get: more skepticism about climate models should lead to more “green” ecological conservationist policies not more lax pro-pollution ones. Why? Simply, uncertainty about the models increases fragility (and thickens the left tail), no matter what the benefits can be in the right tail. Added the section to the precautionary principle. Please discuss but stick to rigor and avoid buzzwords. (Also do not think that the idea is falling from the sky: it is a mere
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Taleb discusses the N=1 Fallacy as part of a series of talks honoring Seth Roberts.
Nassim Taleb is starting the new academic year with a new role. Along with Charles Tapiero, Taleb will be co-director of the EXTREME RISK INITIATIVE, which is expected to develop into an Extreme Risk Institute within the NYU School of Engineering. Here is the official description from his Facebook Page:
In spite of the importance of extreme/hidden risks, there has not been a rigorous methodology to deal with them; statistical or mathematical approaches have not been formally reconciled with real-world decision-making the way engineering has traditionally integrated mathematics and real world heuristics. Extreme
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Nassim has completed his paper The Precautionary Principle: Fragility and Black Swans from Policy Actions with Yaneer Bar-Yam, Raphael Douady, Joseph Norman, & Rupert Read.
Link to the announcement on his Facebook Page here.
Nassim Taleb recently tweeted this photo of an index card that outlines “sins to remember.” And presumably avoid.
Abstract: Proof that under constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation of a European option is risk neutral under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without the requirement of complete markets. The heuristics used by traders for centuries are both more robust and more rigorous than held in the economics literature.
DLD (Digital-Life-Design) keynote by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.