Nassim just posted this one-page refutation to Stephen Pinker’s claim that violence has dropped since 1945. On his facebook page he says that “journalist-passing-for-scientist” Pinker cites “political science bloggers innocent of fat tails, who seem clueless about the difference between data and information. How to separate anecdote from evidence, sampling error from truth, journalism from science? Well there is something called a “test statistic.” This also illustrates how to do rigorous statistics in the absence of a textbook recipe for a fat-tailed process, by means of Monte Carlo analyses. I will be teaching

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One-Page Answer to Pinker’s Notion that Violence Has Dropped Since 1945

Posted on

June 23rd, 2015

Category

Academic, Writing

In a book review called Finally: A Business Memoir That Owes More To Nassim Taleb Than To Jack Welch, David Shaywitz describes similarities he sees between Nassim’s thinking and the thinking of Pixar President Ed Catmull, as revealed in his memoir Creativity Inc. Shaywitz writes:

… in a fashion that seems equally indebted to Montaigne’s On Experience and Taleb’s The Black Swan, Catmull contemplates the challenges of managing in a world where, inevitably, there will be so much that’s hidden, and

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Pixar President Ed Catmull’s Creativity Inc Demonstrates Nassim’s Influence

Posted on

June 17th, 2015

Category

Book Reviews

FightMediocrity on the notion of antifragility in this animated short.

Simple Antifragile Animation

Posted on

May 20th, 2015

Category

Videos

The following article by Mark Buchanan was recently published on Medium. It discusses recent analysis by Nassim, along with Pasquale Cirillo, of historical warfare statistics. This analysis contradicts the popular idea that future violent wars are unlikely:

Violent warfare is on the wane, right?

Many optimists think so. But a close look at the statistics suggests that the idea just doesn’t add up.

A spate of recent and not so recent books have suggested that “everything is

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Violent Warfare: On the Wane?

Posted on

May 19th, 2015

Category

Academic, Statements

As the keynote speaker for the 2015 Fletcher Political Risk Conference, Nassim spoke about Fat Tails.

Video: Fat Tails

Posted on

May 18th, 2015

Category

Academic, Videos

Nassim joins psychologist Daniel Kahneman and journalist Gillian Tett in discussing intuition and instincts and their consequences in decision-making.

Video: Intuition — Marvels and Flaws

Posted on

May 16th, 2015

Category

Academic, Videos

Nassim’s statement on climate models, along with Joseph Norman, Rupert Read, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. He says, “We have *only one* planet and need to learn to live with imperfection of models.” nassim-statement-on-climate-models Posted on Nassim’s facebook page.

Statement on Climate Models

Posted on

May 15th, 2015

Category

Statements, Writing

This is an audio recording of Nassim speaking at the Stanford Technology Ventures Program’s Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders series. It’s called How Things Gain From Disorder.

Audio Recording: How Things Gain From Disorder

Posted on

May 14th, 2015

Category

Academic, Podcasts