Recently on twitter, Nassim  shared this chart comparing outcomes with Clinton as president versus Trump.  In response to a question about Sanders versus Trump, he tweeted: “Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer.”comparing-outcomes-with-hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump

He also followed up with these tweets: “Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan.” “2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer

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Nassim Shares Chart Comparing Outcomes with Clinton as President Versus Trump

Posted on

May 20th, 2016

Nassim, along with his five colleagues in the Real World Risk Institute, offers a Qualitative Mini Certificate in Risk (real world risk, not risk management) for risk professionals and analysts interested in how what they know applies to the real word, professional risk takers (with some basic familiarity with technical language) willing to gain perspective and understand how to use the research without falling into model error, and other executives/decision makers… literally any risk taker with some technical understanding. The next intense one-week workshop will take place from June 6th to

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Nassim’s Mini Certificates in Risk

Posted on

May 16th, 2016

Category

Academic

Nassim shares an excerpt from his work-in-progess Skin in the Game, at Evonomics. In a fascinating article called How To Legally Own Another Person, he discusses how and why well-paid employees behave much like slaves. It begins:

In its early phase, as the church was starting to get established in Europe, there was a group of itinerant people called the gyrovagues. They were gyrating and roaming monks without any affiliation to any institution. Theirs was a free-lance (and ambulatory) variety

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Nassim in Evonomics: How To Legally Own Another Person

Posted on

April 11th, 2016

Category

Links, Writing

Along with a long list of global thought leaders, Nassim will be speaking at this year’s SALT Conference at the Bellagio in Las Vegas on the weekend of May 10-13th:

The SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference is committed to facilitating balanced discussions and debates on macro-economic trends, geo-political events and alternative investment opportunities within the context of a dynamic global economy. With thought leaders, public policy officials, business professionals and investors from over 42 countries and 6 continents, the SALT Conference provides an unmatched

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Nassim Will Speak at the 8th Annual SALT Conference in Las Vegas May 10-13

Posted on

April 5th, 2016

Category

Conferences

On his facebook page, Nassim recently posted links to a new short technical paper on the probability distribution of p-values and a video commentary. He wrote:

I was able to pull out the exact meta-distribution of p-values (i.e. p-values as random variables). The point is that the same phenomenon will produce p-values all over the map.  A true p-value of .12 will produce p-values <.05 more than half the time, so people may never replicate and get the same result. One Hundred Years of P-Value Bullshit!

Here

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The Probability Distribution of P-Values

Posted on

March 26th, 2016

Category

Academic, Videos, Writing

Recently Nassim posted a draft of an article, co-authored by Pasquale Cirillo, set to appear in the Royal Statistical Society’s journal Significance.

In the article, Nassim responds to Prof. Michael Sagat’s misreading of his and Cirillo’s earlier paper on the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts.

What Are the Chances of a Third World War?

Posted on

March 23rd, 2016

Category

Academic, Writing

Nassim kicks off The Bank of England’s One Bank Flagship Seminar, the first such seminar offered by the bank in an effort at greater transparency:

The first part of this talk – The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World – presents fat tails, defines them, and shows how the conventional statistics fail to operate in the real world, particularly with econometric variables, for two main reasons: 1) we need a lot, a lot more data for fat tails; and 2) we are going about estimators the wrong way. The second part –

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Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics

Posted on

March 18th, 2016

Category

Academic, Videos