Nassim shares an excerpt from his work-in-progess Skin in the Game, at Evonomics. In a fascinating article called How To Legally Own Another Person, he discusses how and why well-paid employees behave much like slaves. It begins:

In its early phase, as the church was starting to get established in Europe, there was a group of itinerant people called the gyrovagues. They were gyrating and roaming monks without any affiliation to any institution. Theirs was a free-lance (and ambulatory) variety

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Nassim in Evonomics: How To Legally Own Another Person

Posted on

April 11th, 2016

Category

Links, Writing

Along with a long list of global thought leaders, Nassim will be speaking at this year’s SALT Conference at the Bellagio in Las Vegas on the weekend of May 10-13th:

The SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference is committed to facilitating balanced discussions and debates on macro-economic trends, geo-political events and alternative investment opportunities within the context of a dynamic global economy. With thought leaders, public policy officials, business professionals and investors from over 42 countries and 6 continents, the SALT Conference provides an unmatched

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Nassim Will Speak at the 8th Annual SALT Conference in Las Vegas May 10-13

Posted on

April 5th, 2016

Category

Conferences

On his facebook page, Nassim recently posted links to a new short technical paper on the probability distribution of p-values and a video commentary. He wrote:

I was able to pull out the exact meta-distribution of p-values (i.e. p-values as random variables). The point is that the same phenomenon will produce p-values all over the map.  A true p-value of .12 will produce p-values <.05 more than half the time, so people may never replicate and get the same result. One Hundred Years of P-Value Bullshit!

Here

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The Probability Distribution of P-Values

Posted on

March 26th, 2016

Category

Academic, Videos, Writing

Recently Nassim posted a draft of an article, co-authored by Pasquale Cirillo, set to appear in the Royal Statistical Society’s journal Significance.

In the article, Nassim responds to Prof. Michael Sagat’s misreading of his and Cirillo’s earlier paper on the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts.

What Are the Chances of a Third World War?

Posted on

March 23rd, 2016

Category

Academic, Writing

Nassim kicks off The Bank of England’s One Bank Flagship Seminar, the first such seminar offered by the bank in an effort at greater transparency:

The first part of this talk – The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World – presents fat tails, defines them, and shows how the conventional statistics fail to operate in the real world, particularly with econometric variables, for two main reasons: 1) we need a lot, a lot more data for fat tails; and 2) we are going about estimators the wrong way. The second part –

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Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics

Posted on

March 18th, 2016

Category

Academic, Videos

Some highlights of the Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies’ discussion on “Peace for Syria through a A Federal Governance Strategy” with Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam, moderated by Nassim Taleb. Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam, founder and president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, discussed complexity theory and violence, with a special focus on implications of the theory in the Syrian context.

Here is the full version of the talk.

Video: Nassim Discusses Complexity Theory at The Fletcher School

Posted on

February 25th, 2016

Category

Academic, Videos

Discussing the concept of antifragility, Nassim remotely addresses the Theory of Constraints International Conference held in Capetown South Africa from September 6th to 9th, 2015. The theme of the conference was how to use the Theory of Constraints to transform organizations and people from fragile (harmed by volatility) to robust (not harmed by volatility) to antifragile (benefiting from volatility).

Video: Nassim on the Concept of Antifragility

Posted on

February 25th, 2016

Category

Videos