Recently on twitter, Nassim shared this chart comparing outcomes with Clinton as president versus Trump. In response to a question about Sanders versus Trump, he tweeted: “Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer.”
He also followed up with these tweets: “Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan.” “2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer
Nassim, along with his five colleagues in the Real World Risk Institute, offers a Qualitative Mini Certificate in Risk (real world risk, not risk management) for risk professionals and analysts interested in how what they know applies to the real word, professional risk takers (with some basic familiarity with technical language) willing to gain perspective and understand how to use the research without falling into model error, and other executives/decision makers… literally any risk taker with some technical understanding. The next intense one-week workshop will take place from June 6th to
In its early phase, as the church was starting to get established in Europe, there was a group of itinerant people called the gyrovagues. They were gyrating and roaming monks without any affiliation to any institution. Theirs was a free-lance (and ambulatory) variety
Along with a long list of global thought leaders, Nassim will be speaking at this year’s SALT Conference at the Bellagio in Las Vegas on the weekend of May 10-13th:
The SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference is committed to facilitating balanced discussions and debates on macro-economic trends, geo-political events and alternative investment opportunities within the context of a dynamic global economy. With thought leaders, public policy officials, business professionals and investors from over 42 countries and 6 continents, the SALT Conference provides an unmatched
On his facebook page, Nassim recently posted links to a new short technical paper on the probability distribution of p-values and a video commentary. He wrote:
I was able to pull out the exact meta-distribution of p-values (i.e. p-values as random variables). The point is that the same phenomenon will produce p-values all over the map. A true p-value of .12 will produce p-values <.05 more than half the time, so people may never replicate and get the same result. One Hundred Years of P-Value Bullshit!
Nassim kicks off The Bank of England’s One Bank Flagship Seminar, the first such seminar offered by the bank in an effort at greater transparency:
The first part of this talk – The Law of Large Numbers in the Real World – presents fat tails, defines them, and shows how the conventional statistics fail to operate in the real world, particularly with econometric variables, for two main reasons: 1) we need a lot, a lot more data for fat tails; and 2) we are going about estimators the wrong way. The second part –
Over at The Market Oracle, James Quinn expands on Nassim’s idea (now widely circulating on social media) that votes for Trump (and to a lesser degree, Bernie Sanders) are emotion-drive votes to destroy the established order of government.