On twitter, Nassim refers to a “mistake” he made “about power laws with ‘near-infinite’ but not infinite support.” He explains in this document:

Nassim’s Mistake About Power Laws

Posted on

April 14th, 2015

Category

Academic

On twitter, Nassim announced that he finally submitted a paper to a journal that specializes in information theory. You can view the paper, called “Tail Risk Constraints and Maximum Entropy” and co-authored by Donald Geman and Helyette Geman, here.

Formalization of the Barbell

Posted on

March 17th, 2015

Category

Academic

Nassim and Paul Wilmott are offering their “infamous” two-day seminar “Quantitative Risk Management: In Theory and In Practice” on March 12th and 13th, in London. Here are the points that will be addressed:

What is risk? What are fat tails? The idea of fragility and how to measure it Size and scaling The law of large numbers in the real world What is complexity? How to price options using different distributions How to simulate fat tails How to measure model risk How not to measure model risk Sometimes it’s wrong to use probabilities The concept of delta-alpha The commonest quant

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Nassim and Paul Wilmott Offer 2-Day Seminar in London, March 12-13

Posted on

March 9th, 2015

Category

Academic

Nassim, introduced by Abhimanyu Radhakrishnan, gives a talk called “Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” at the Jaipur Literary Festival.

Nassim At the Jaipur Literary Festival

Posted on

February 2nd, 2015

Category

Videos

Nassim shares Chapter 1 of his work-in-progress, Silent Risk, which explains what the Black Swan problem is and is not. He comments that it is “still incomplete, but useful.”

From his Facebook Page.

What the Black Swan Problem Is and Is Not

Posted on

January 31st, 2015

Category

Academic, Writing

Nassim shares his latest monograph (co-authored by Raphael Douady) and introduces his new venture in publishing at the same time:

Descartes Monographs accept only manuscripts that have been rigorously peer- reviewed or contain material that has appeared in peer-reviewed journals or has been sufficiently cited to merit inclusion in the series. Its aim is to “Überize” academic publishing by cutting the middleperson and producing books of the highest scientific quality at the most affordable price. Descartes engages in ethical publishing, avoiding double-charging the public sector for books produced on university time.

From his

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Nassim Attempts to Uberize Publishing with Descartes Monographs

Posted on

January 24th, 2015

Category

Academic, Writing

econ-talk-library-of-economics-and-liberty-nassim-taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile, Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness, talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about a recent co-authored paper on the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and the use of the Precautionary Principle. Taleb contrasts harm with ruin and explains how the differences imply different rules of behavior when dealing with the risk of each. Taleb argues that when considering the riskiness of GMOs, the right understanding of statistics is more valuable than expertise in biology or genetics. The central issue that pervades the conversation is how to cope with

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[PODCAST] Nassim Taleb on EconTalk: Precautionary Principle and Genetically Modified Organisms

Posted on

January 20th, 2015

Category

Audio, Podcasts

We use fragility theory to show the effect of size and response to uncertainty, how distributed decision-making creates more apparent volatility, but ensures long term survival of a system. Simply, economies of scale are more than offset by stochastic diseconomies from shocks and there is such a thing as a “sweet spot” in optimal size. We show how city-states fare better than large states, how mice and small species are more robust than elephants, and how the canton mechanism can potentially solve Near Eastern problems.

This talk was part of “Cities and Development: Urban

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[VIDEO] NYU Development Research Institute’s 2014 Conference | Nassim Taleb: Small is Beautiful – but Also Less Fragile

Posted on

January 2nd, 2015

Category

General, Videos