On Medium, Nassim explains how once an intransigent minority reaches a tiny percentage of the total population, the majority of the population will naturally succumb to their preferences:

The best example I know that gives insights into the functioning of a complex system is with the following situation. It suffices for an intransigent minority –a certain type of intransigent minorities –to reach a minutely small level, say three or four percent of the total population, for the entire population to have to submit to their preferences. Further, an

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The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority

Posted on

August 19th, 2016

Category

Academic, Links, Politics

1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016

2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016

3) More

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Nassim Criticizes Nate Silver’s Election Predictions on Twitter

Posted on

August 14th, 2016

On his facebook page, Nassim shared the fact that he recently presented “an English translation” of his technical thesis on violence, co-authored by Pasquale Cirillo and written in response to Steven Pinker’s assertion that violence has declined, to the Nobel Symposium, a three-day retreat for the president of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee, the secretary of the Prize, a few committee members, and 20 scholars. He wrote:

I presented the paper on violence. Bear Braumoeller presented another one similarly critical of Pinker. After our session, the audience was split into:

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Nassim Recently Presented His Thesis on Violence to the Nobel Symposium

Posted on

June 26th, 2016

Category

Academic, Writing

On facebook, Nassim recently posted the following statement about journalistic ethics in light of the current controversy over Hulk Hogan’s successful lawsuit for $140 million dollars against Gawker Media. Hulk Hogan was backed by tech billionaire Peter Thiel in his efforts:

PUTTING SKIN IN THE GAME OF JOURNALISTS [CITIZENS vs GAWKER and CITIZENS vs JOURNALISM]

Journalists –as any guild, care about their peers and their community more than the general public. Except that we cannot afford to have such a community engage in a conspiracy against the laymen since they represent our interests, us

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Nassim on Journalists

Posted on

June 7th, 2016

Category

Links, Statements

Recently on twitter, Nassim  shared this chart comparing outcomes with Clinton as president versus Trump.  In response to a question about Sanders versus Trump, he tweeted: “Bernie v. Trump I go Bernie because his domestic policies won’t go through and his foreign policies are clearer.”comparing-outcomes-with-hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump

He also followed up with these tweets: “Hillary and Bush have done the most to harm minority populations in the Levant & Iraq since Genghis Khan.” “2/What I mean by rigorous is not making assumptions/ certainties when there is uncertainty. Shillary offers certainties, Trump fewer

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Nassim Shares Chart Comparing Outcomes with Clinton as President Versus Trump

Posted on

May 20th, 2016

Nassim, along with his five colleagues in the Real World Risk Institute, offers a Qualitative Mini Certificate in Risk (real world risk, not risk management) for risk professionals and analysts interested in how what they know applies to the real word, professional risk takers (with some basic familiarity with technical language) willing to gain perspective and understand how to use the research without falling into model error, and other executives/decision makers… literally any risk taker with some technical understanding. The next intense one-week workshop will take place from June 6th to

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Nassim’s Mini Certificates in Risk

Posted on

May 16th, 2016

Category

Academic