The difference between 100 people going to a casino and one person going to a casino 100 times, i.e. between (path dependent) and conventionally understood probability. The mistake has persisted in economics and psychology since age immemorial.

A central chapter that crystallizes all my work. In forth. Skin in the Game Time to explain ergodicity, ruin and (again) rationality. Recall from the previous chapter that to do science (and other nice things) requires survival but not the other way around?

Consider the following thought experiment.

First case, one hundred persons

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Medium: The Logic of Risk Taking

Posted on

August 25th, 2017

Category

Links, Writing

[One of the more technical (and optional) chapters, at the end of Skin of the Game]

Rory Sutherland claims that the real function for swimming pools is allowing the middle class to sit around in bathing suits without looking ridiculous. Same with New York restaurants: you think their mission is to feed people, but that’s not what they do. They are in the business of selling you overpriced liquor or Great Tuscan wines by the glass, yet get you into the door by serving you your low-carb (or low-something) dishes at breakeven cost. (This business model, of course, fails to

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Medium: How to be Rational about Rationality

Posted on

August 22nd, 2017

Category

Writing

The diversity discourse appears to serve an insidious form of racism and Northern Euro supremacist agenda (with a redefinition of the Western world and a reframing of the classics). Please stop classifying people according to race, and stop creating racial stereotypes and divisions in the name of “diversity”, while doing some smug virtue signaling. Look up “framing” in a decision theory textbook and you can see what I mean. This is no different from funding Al Qaeda headcutters and women-enslavers in Syria in the name of “democracy”.

Read the full piece on Medium: 

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Medium: The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the “diversity” operators

Posted on

August 17th, 2017

Category

Links, Politics, Writing

Aug.16 — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, adviser at Universa Investments, sat down for an interview with Erik Schatzker Tuesday evening in New York. Taleb, famous for his assessment of risk, says there are greater risks out there than nuclear war with North Korea.

 

Bloomberg: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Sees Greater Risks Than Nuclear War

Posted on

August 17th, 2017

Category

General, Videos

Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the manuscript version of his forthcoming book, Skin in the Game. Topics discussed include the role of skin in the game in labor markets, the power of minorities, the Lindy effect, Taleb’s blind spots and regrets, and the politics of globalization.

Link to episode: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/08/nassim_nicholas_1.html

Direct Download Link: http://files.libertyfund.org/econtalk/y2017/Talebgame.mp3

New EconTalk Episode with Russ Roberts: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game

Posted on

August 15th, 2017

Category

Audio, Podcasts

Something is Broken in the UK Intellectual Sphere

What was meant to be a “typical” of Roman Britain by the BBC: flowing quotas of political correctness backward in time.

The BBC did some kind of educational cartoon on Roman Britain and represented “diversity” in terms of someone looking African in the show as representative of “diversity” at the time. The BBC was effectively applying quotas retroactively (I mean, really retroactively). Any dissent from the statistical errors made by the politically correct police is treated as apostasy. Effectively, scholarship is dead

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Two new Medium pieces from Nassim

Posted on

August 4th, 2017

Category

Links, Writing

Join in and give your 2c!

Skin in the Game: Silent asymmetries in Daily Life

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 19, 2017

Skin in the Game A The Invisible Matrix of Daily Life B The Hidden Symmetry in Daily Life C Silent asymmetries in Daily Life

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 19, 2017

Playing with the most representative title

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) July 18, 2017

Nassim asking Twitter followers for feedback on the subtitle of his new upcoming book Skin In The Game (SITG)

Posted on

July 21st, 2017

Category

Twitter

For fat tailed distributions, the empirical distributions does not reflect the true statistical properties, particularly for extremes. This is a simplified side note to a paper with Mark Spitznagel on why people make a mistake by looking at raw historical data as “empiricism”.

So I am fed up with academics who say “we know it is fat tails” yet not understand the consequences.

Nassim Taleb’s Probability Moocs: The empirical distribution is … not empirical

Posted on

June 12th, 2017

Category

Academic, MOOCs, Videos

I will always remember my encounter with the writer and cultural icon Susan Sontag, largely because it was on the same day that I met the great Benoit Mandelbrot. It took place in 2001, two months after the terrorist event, in a radio station in New York. Sontag who was being interviewed, was pricked by the idea of a fellow who “studies randomness” and came to engage me. When she discovered that I was a trader, she blurted out that she was “against the market system” and turned her back to me as I was in mid-sentence, just to humiliate

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Medium Post: The Merchandising of Virtue

Posted on

May 29th, 2017

Category

Writing

This tutorial presents the intuitions of the randomness of sample correlation (spurious correlation) and the methodologies in derivations. Some later sections are somewhat technical as Nassim rederived an old equation with more precise functions (in order to apply to fat tails) and showed the distribution of the maximum of d variables with n points per variable. This paves the way to the real scientific work on random matric theory under fat tails and the failure of Marchenko-Pastur.

Randomness of Correlation & Its Hacking by Big Dataists

Posted on

May 24th, 2017

Category

Academic, MOOCs, Videos