The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. “Real tails” do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails. Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced “Ber-noo-yi” not “Ber-noo-li”, much like consigliere is pronounced “consiyyere”.
Tag: YouTube
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 4
Topics Covered:
- Geoengineering
- Mao’s Four Pest Problem
- Brexit
- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government
- The “LongTermism” nonsense of SBF
- The Final Chapter
[YouTube] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Market Sell-Offs
Nassim Taleb, Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor and ‘The Black Swan’ author, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the market sell-off, the Fed’s inflation fight, interest rate outlook, bitcoin’s volatility, and more.
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 2
+The Turkey Problem
+ Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans
+ Meeting Kahneman
+ The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 1
Scott Patterson discusses with Nassim N Taleb his book Chaos Kings, chapter by chapter. This is Part 1.
[YouTube] STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024
TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling. Stephen Wolfram’s discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.
[YouTube] Nassim Taleb on Stocks Over Bonds
CNBC: The Exchange, Nassim Taleb, May 20, 2024
[Twitter] Mega 3-hour podcast episode on Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan
[YouTube] MINI LECTURE 18 (MORE TECHNICAL): How to build a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo Simulations for a set dimensionality
How to build by tinkering with a positive definite correlation matrix for Monte Carlo simulations for a given dimensionality.
[YouTube] MINI LECTURE 17: Maximum Ignorance Probability (a bit more technical)
What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What’s her or his failure rate? I didn’t realize that the trick wasn’t in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.