Nassim Nicholas Taleb teases his upcoming book ‘The Lydian Stone,’ set for a 2025 release.
Tag: Twitter
[Twitter] A mini tutorial explaining the #FooledbyRandomness point
Mistakes often made in the interpretation of R^2 beyond the standard textbook by people who haven’t studied the ‘Fooled by Randomness’ effect on parameters of distribution, particularly when samples are small.
[Twitter] Explaining the debt/death spiral
Errata: 30 Trillion not Billions.
Working With Convex Responses: Antifragility From Finance to Oncology
Link to article – www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/2/343
[Twitter] Maximum Ignorance Probability, with Application to Surgery’s Error Rates
A maximum entropy alternative to Bayesian methods for the estimation of independent Bernouilli sums.
On Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Its Mismeasurement
HRV appears to be ill-defined in papers and regressions; using logged variables fixes the problem.
Link to paper – fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/on-heart-rate-variability-mismeasurement/
Life Expectancy can be so grossly misunderstood by “experts”
Link to article – Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News
Never use Single-point Estimates for Pandemics
ERRORS 101
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.
[YouTube] Appendix to the Conversation with Tyler Cowen and Bryan Caplan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6LbaJURZPo
Original post on Medium: https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-in-the-game-black-swan-104620da8a57
[Podcast] Conversations with Tyler: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Self-Education and Doing the Math
“Though what Taleb was really after was a discussion with Bryan (read that here), the philosopher, mathematician, and author most recently of Skin in the Game also generously agreed to a conversation with Tyler.
Continue reading on Medium: https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/tyler-cowen-nassim-nicholas-taleb-skin-in-the-game-black-swan-104620da8a57