Nassim says:

This tutorial presents the intuitions of the randomness of sample correlation (spurious correlation) and the methodologies in derivations. Some later sections are somewhat technical as rederived an old equation with more precise functions (in order to apply to fat tails) and showed the distribution of the maximum of d variables with n points per variable. This paves the way to the real scientific work on random matric theory under fat tails and failure of Marchenko-Pastur.

A Mini-MOOC Tutorial: The Randomness of Correlation and its Hacking by Big Dataists

Posted on

October 26th, 2016

Category

MOOCs, Videos

Nassim has written the foreword to Ed Thorp’s memoir A Man for All Markets:

Abraham de Moivre

 

Ed Thorp memoirs read like a thriller –mixing wearable computers that would have made James Bond proud, shady characters, great scientists and poisoning attempts (in addition to the sabotage of Ed’s car so he would have an “accident” in the desert). The book will reveal a thorough, rigorous, methodical person in search

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Foreword to Ed Thorp’s Memoirs (A Man for All Markets)

Posted on

October 7th, 2016

Category

Academic, Writing

The brokerage firm Alpari sponsors two seminars featuring Nassim, titled “Black Swan: predicting and winning in a world of chaos”, that will take place in Kiev, Ukraine on October 10th, and in Moscow on the 12th.

Nassim to Visit Moscow and Kiev

Posted on

October 3rd, 2016

Category

Conferences

On Medium, Nassim posts an excerpt from Skin in the Game:

What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.

But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligenzia” can’t find

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The Intellectual Yet Idiot

Posted on

September 28th, 2016

Category

Academic, Writing

Nassim appears on Sophie Shevardnadze’s talk show on RT. The transcript of the interview is below:

Sophie Shevardnadze: Professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, it’s a real pleasure to have you on our show today.

Nassim Taleb: Thank you, I’m honoured to be here. Thanks for inviting me.

SS: You’ve said that there’s no way to control economic cycles and prevent crashes, right? So, basically, I quote: “what we need is citizens to become robust to them and to be immune to their impact”. Now, how does that happen in a real world?

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Nassim: We Worry about Terror, But Disease is the Black Swan of the World

Posted on

September 13th, 2016

Category

Politics, Videos

On Medium, Nassim posts a continuation of his previous article on the Minority Rule:

Let us take the idea of the last chapter [the intransigent minority’s disproportional influence] one step further, get a bit more technical, and generalize. It will debunk some of the fallacies we hear in psychology, “evolutionary theory”, game theory, behavioral economics, neuroscience, and similar fields not subjected to proper logical (and mathematical) rigor, in spite of the occasional semi-complicated equations. For instance we will see why behavioral economics will necessarily fail us even if its

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Where You Cannot Generalize from Knowledge of Parts

Posted on

September 13th, 2016

On Medium, Nassim explains how once an intransigent minority reaches a tiny percentage of the total population, the majority of the population will naturally succumb to their preferences:

The best example I know that gives insights into the functioning of a complex system is with the following situation. It suffices for an intransigent minority –a certain type of intransigent minorities –to reach a minutely small level, say three or four percent of the total population, for the entire population to have to submit to their preferences. Further, an optical illusion comes with the dominance

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The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority

Posted on

August 19th, 2016

Category

Academic, Links, Politics

1/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016

2/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016

3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability).

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) August 6, 2016