What do you do when you must estimate a probability and there is ZERO information? A surgeon did 60 operations with 0 failure. What’s her or his failure rate? I didn’t realize that the trick wasn’t in the literature until John Hughes wrote a paper in Statistics and Probability Letters based on my blog post presenting the idea.
Tag: Maximum Ignorance Probability
[Twitter] Maximum Ignorance Probability, with Application to Surgery’s Error Rates
A maximum entropy alternative to Bayesian methods for the estimation of independent Bernouilli sums.