Nassim Taleb's Turkey Problem Quote

…Via www.michaelcovel.com

6 Comments
  1. […] his book Antifragile, N Taleb refers to this as “the turkey problem“. Simply put, the confidence that turkeys on a farm have about their longevity is highest […]

  2. […] In fact each year only makes it more likely that Frank Gore falls off. People are feeling the most confident in Gore at exactly the wrong time. It’s like Taleb’s Thanksgiving Turkey example. […]

  3. […] that drafters are making a logical error when drafting Frank Gore this year. He compares it to the Turkey Problem. Basically, people are thinking the fact that Gore hasn’t fallen off yet makes him less […]

  4. […] In fact each year only makes it more likely that Frank Gore falls off. People are feeling the most confident in Gore at exactly the wrong time. It’s like Taleb’s Thanksgiving Turkey example. […]

  5. […] I was caught by the train again today on my run. I think I’ve just stumbled onto the schedule. The train rolls across the Steel Bridge at noon every Wednesday. Reminds me of Taleb’s Turkey Problem. […]

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Turkey Problem

Posted on

September 18th, 2013

Category

General