What are Fat Tails? This is very introductory. See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
What are Fat Tails? This is very introductory. See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
Countries that Panicked Early Did Best: A Conversation With Yaneer Bar Yam
Link to the Study – The Zero Covid strategy protects people and economies more effectively
A VERY SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL (VERY SHORT)
Correlation measures are misused in the presence of nonlinearities.
(How a measure of unintelligence can give the illusion of high correlation with performance.)
Correlation measures are not supposed to be used in the presence of nonlinearities. When 2 variables correlate half the time (in a symmetric way around the mean), correlation will not be 50% but will show ~90%. Part of debunking IQ studies. If IQ works for disabilities but does not correlate with success, there is an illusion of correlation because of the biases in the metric.
Nassim and Yaneer discuss the Danish study on Face Masks published by Bundgaard et al., “Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers.”
HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN THE PRESENCE OF FALSE POSITIVES: THE FLAWS IN THE DANISH MASK STUDY
Conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Executive President of IE Exponential Learning at IE University, Teresa Martín-Retortillo at enlightED Virtual Edition 2020.
starts at 12:45 of the YouTube video.
Nassim Taleb’s Interview with George Buhnici of Cavaleria Com YouTube channel
This one of those videos that will definitely change your perspective on the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is one of the most pragmatic minds out there and I was honored to interview him. Enjoy!
Fake Regression by Psychologists (Fooled by Randomness), Based on the paper on Trust by Nicolas Baumard
How to detect fake regressions. Never pay attention to numbers before looking at the graph.
First I show how to spot fakes in a sinister paper by Nicolas Baumard et. al. linking people’s physical traits to (un)trusworthiness.
Second, more technically, I derive the distribution of the slope between two random variables and show how one can game it.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
Link to Podcast – econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/
Direct Link (mp3): Talebpandemic.mp3
You can get English subtitles by:
Step 1. Click on Settings (gear icon), Subtitles/CC and select French (auto-generated).
Step 2. Go to Settings again, Subtitles/CC and then select Auto-translate and then select English.
It should then show as “Subtitles/CC (2) French (auto-generated) >> English“
Modern financial theory assumes that distributions are elliptical. We show what happens if the assumption doesn’t hold. And the assumption doesn’t hold.
Diversification does NOT reduce risks in the financial market; it causes near-certain long term blowups under any leverage.