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Explained in 4 Minutes
Yedidya Levy briefly discusses some of the reasons Nassim Taleb states that Bitcoin will in fact go to Zero. Nassim recently published a paper titled “Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles.” It is also referred to as #bitcoinblackpaper.
Link to #bitcoinblackpaper – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
Link to supplementary material – fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf
This video is of Nassim’s keynote address at this year’s CoinGeek Conference in Zurich.
Nassim Taleb starts around 6:38:17 of the video
Power laws, extremely simplified.
We saw that 1) many metrics are stochastic, 2) what is stochastic can be hacked. This is the simplification of my work showing that “p-values are not p-values”, i.e. highly sample dependent, with a skewed distribution. For instance, for a “true” P value of .11, 53% of observations will show less than .05. This allows for hacking: in a few trials, a researcher can get a fake p-value of .01.
Paper is here and in Chapter 19 of SCOFT (Statistical Conseq of Fat Tails): Link to paper – A Short Note on P-Value Hacking
A maximally simplified presentation of how metrics are random variables, and how they can be gamed. Uncorrelated variables will produce a correlation in samples.
The Gates Foundation is financing genetically modified mosquitoes to control natural mosquitoes. This quick video:
1) Discusses the Four Pest Campaign by Mao that helped kill 15-50 Million people around 1960.
2) Explains why genetic modification has nothing to do with natural selection or animal breeding.
Scientism is not science.
A maximally intuitive presentation on what correlation is not, with maximally simplified concepts. [Note that I improvise 100% and I don’t prepare] There is a more technical lecture to come.
The technical paper is here: Fooled by Correlation: Common Misinterpretations in Social “Science”
The CLT allows anyone (including ignorant economists and psychologists) to do statistics by using prepackaged recipes coming from the Gaussian. What are the foundations? How does it work? Where does it not work?
Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.