X Archives - Nassim Taleb

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb to Speak at the American University of Beirut on December 9

On November 21, 2024 By Admin In Conferences, Twitter, X

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Conjecture Tested: Experiment Shows Results of Trading with News in Advance

On September 26, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
My conjecture, expressed on X, that pple w/news in advance don't do well has been tested by Haghani et al.

Indeed they failed to really capitalize on information 1) you don't know beforehand what is noise, & 2) overestimate the information (sizing) pic.twitter.com/6pcwrrVOgf
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 25, 2024

Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Reiterates His Critique: IQ as Pseudoscience and Its Role in Race Science

On August 28, 2024 By Admin In Politics, Statements, Twitter, Writing, X

Finally, years after my IQ is not like height. Height is measured, IQ (assuming it works) is estimated. Height is low-dimensional with small variance, so the expression translates more accurately. IQ is high dimensional with high variance and high dependence on environment. https://t.co/ypvMLOMYNT pic.twitter.com/o2zbMIB0Kk
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2024

Sourcehttps://t.co/sR5GJEHz60
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 27, 2024

[Twitter | X] Medicine & Entropy: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Health Asymmetry Between ‘Sedentary’ and ‘Fit’

On August 28, 2024 By Admin In Statements, Twitter, X

MEDICINE & ENTROPY

I keep insisting on asymmetries from using wrong reference base.
"Sedentary bt healthy" as control gets different results from using "environmentally fit" (10-15 h of exercise).
Like K-L divergence which is never symmetric.

Why?
"Sedentary healthy" has many… https://t.co/XwUCfmucgJ pic.twitter.com/f6X2peaqKr
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 26, 2024

2/ The Kullbacl-Leibner divergence is simply the relative distance between indiv* A and indiv B using the traits of B as baseline.
*Or population pic.twitter.com/s4STaTYwFn
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 26, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Kelly Criterion and Mutual Information in Investment Settings

On August 8, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

DISCUSSION
Thanks to a 6 hours flight delay, relied on the soothing effect of mathematics & tried to figure out the effect of side information in a Kelly-style betting framework, which requires re-deriving Kelly.
Any derivation/sign errors? pic.twitter.com/dI2BQGeSUR
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 7, 2024

I think I managed to (re?)derive the equivalent of Mutual Information from side information in a continuous setting. pic.twitter.com/GlelkSHHXB
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 8, 2024

pic.twitter.com/qPFlEY7qOh
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) August 7, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Dismisses Labeling S&P 500’s Worst Day in Two Years as a ‘Black Swan’ Event

On August 7, 2024 By Admin In Economics, Twitter, Videos, X

Was yesterday's huge market sell-off, the worst day for the S&P 500 in nearly two years, a "Black Swan" event?@NNTaleb, who wrote "The Black Swan," says no. pic.twitter.com/xj0DR4wEZd
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 6, 2024

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Tweets ‘The Black Swan’ as the Most Influential 21st Century Book

On August 1, 2024 By Admin In Statements, Twitter, X

Dear enemies,The Black Swan is now the most influential (that is, discussed/mentioned) 21st C book.
While almost all books have a half-life between 2 and 6 months, it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy

[Same with other 4 books in the Incerto. Graph is US only] pic.twitter.com/eUYGTPtMTJ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 30, 2024

The other 4 books in Taleb’s “Incerto” book series:

Fooled by Randomness
The Bed of Procrustes
Antifragile
Skin in the Game

[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains Why Economists Struggle in Practical Fields

On July 9, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Statements, Twitter, X

Link to tweet – x.com/nntaleb/status/1810010163270619255

[Twitter/X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains the Research Surge in Developing Countries

On July 7, 2024 By Admin In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

Why are we seeing an explosion of research from China, India, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, etc.?

A tiny bit of growth leads to nonlinear effects in the tails. As education improves 1 STD, the number of PhDs is multiplied by 42.

Need to calibrate with real nmbrs. pic.twitter.com/QRctYvJ6Qs
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 6, 2024

2/This is not about paper mills, etc., but genuine research (i.e., in Nature Index) and doctorates in medicine.
Also this applies to skills in the tails, like STEM pple, not just PhDs.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 6, 2024

[Twitter] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Says Biden’s Age and Cognitive Decline Pose Significant Risks for Presidency

On June 30, 2024 By Admin In Politics, Statements, Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently shared his thoughts on the potential risks associated with President Joe Biden’s age and cognitive health on X (formerly Twitter).

People with cognitive decline (even when mild) have a much shorter life expectancy, so from the differential I would say that Biden has >60% chance of leaving us in the next 4 ½ years.

These irresponsible idiots fail elementary risk analysis. pic.twitter.com/AfWvSTbV1b
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 30, 2024

I hear some idiots arguing that Biden, while slow, can operate and make some decisions. They don't get that life is dynamic not static: next year he will be worse than he is today; and the year after that… Absence of degradation would be a true tail event.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 30, 2024