[Twitter] A mini tutorial explaining the #FooledbyRandomness point

Mistakes often made in the interpretation of R^2 beyond the standard textbook by people who haven’t studied the ‘Fooled by Randomness’ effect on parameters of distribution, particularly when samples are small.

Errata: 30 Trillion not Billions.

[Twitter] Maximum Ignorance Probability, with Application to Surgery’s Error Rates

A maximum entropy alternative to Bayesian methods for the estimation of independent Bernouilli sums.

On Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and Its Mismeasurement

HRV appears to be ill-defined in papers and regressions; using logged variables fixes the problem.

Never use Single-point Estimates for Pandemics

ERRORS 101
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.

[Podcast] Conversations with Tyler: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Self-Education and Doing the Math

“Though what Taleb was really after was a discussion with Bryan (read that here), the philosopher, mathematician, and author most recently of Skin in the Game also generously agreed to a conversation with Tyler.

Two new Medium pieces from Nassim

Something is Broken in the UK Intellectual Sphere

The BBC did some kind of educational cartoon on Roman Britain and represented “diversity” in terms of someone looking African in the show as representative of “diversity” at the time. The BBC was effectively applying quotas retroactively (I mean, really retroactively). Any dissent from the statistical errors made by the politically correct police is treated as apostasy. Effectively, scholarship is dead in the U.K.

When did Lebanese Christians Start Speaking French?

The current narrative (and, I am not joking, given by “experts” in international relations, etc.) is that the Lebanese Christians, like inhabitants of the Maghreb, picked up French from something called “French colonialism”. But the French only spent two decades in Lebanon, replacing the Ottomans after the great war, a period during which it was a “mandate”, something like a concession. Unlike the Maghreb, there was no settlers, no nothing. And not one noticed that the French language was heavily ingrained in the Christian bourgeoisie during the Ottoman Empire.

Take the Titanic. Among the passengers sunk in 1912 (hence before “colonialism”) are the following Lebanese names: Eugénie Baqlini, Catherine Dawud, Helene Barbara, Charles Tannous, Marie-Sophie Abrahim. A decade before the French army arrived. And my own family has among those, born before 1920, names such as Marcel, Edouard, Angele, Laure, Evelyne, Mathilde, Victoire (later adapted to Victoria), Philomene, etc. My mother was named after her aunt, Minerve (born 1905). Many archaic French names.