Tag: Risk Analysis

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Kelly Criterion and Mutual Information in Investment Settings

On By In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

[Twitter] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Says Biden’s Age and Cognitive Decline Pose Significant Risks for Presidency

On By In Politics, Statements, Twitter

Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently shared his thoughts on the potential risks associated with President Joe Biden’s age and cognitive health on X (formerly Twitter).

[Medium] The Masks Masquerade

On By In Statements, Writing
I want to travel this summer

Incompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face Covering

SIX ERRORS: 1) missing the compounding effects of masks, 2) missing the nonlinearity of the probability of infection to viral exposures, 3) missing absence of evidence (of benefits of mask wearing) for evidence of absence (of benefits of mask wearing), 4) missing the point that people do not need governments to produce facial covering: they can make their own, 5) missing the compounding effects of statistical signals, 6) ignoring the Non-Aggression Principle by pseudolibertarians (masks are also to protect others from you; it’s a multiplicative process: every person you infect will infect others).

In fact masks (and faceshields) supplemented with constraints of superspreader events can save us trillions of dollars in future lockdowns (and lawsuits) and be potentially sufficient (under adequate compliance) to stem the pandemic. Bureaucrats do not like simple solutions.

Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade