
Link to Post on X – https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1982121385594953828
Amazon Link – https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FXPWYL9P/
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Link to Post on X – https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1982121385594953828
Amazon Link – https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FXPWYL9P/

PDF Download Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.10488

Nassim Taleb is trader, researcher and essayist. He is the author of the Incerto, a multi-volume philosophical and practical meditation on uncertainty.
Power laws, extremely simplified.
For n observations, what is the hidden moment? What are you missing from the “empirical” distribution?
Say the maximum flood was 3 meters or maximum loss was 22%. What are we missing in the statistical properties?
Link to the Paper mentioned in the video – What You See and What You Don’t See: The Hidden Moments of a Probability Distribution
A simple tutorial explaining how in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise. Once you establish that a variable is in the power-law class, some necessary consequences come out. To debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.
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Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
PDF Download Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.10488