[YouTube] Claims that Violence Has Dropped Are Not Statistical

Violence is from Extremistan, hence requires some more sophisticated tools since LLN works slowly. We see how Pinker’s thesis is bogus. We look at ways to integrate the factual unreliability of historical accounts. We look at transformations to analyze violence using Power law tools since the worst case is bounded at the contemporary population level.

Links to Papers with Pasquale Cirillo

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts [TECHNICAL, PHYSICA A]

The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say? [NONTECHNICAL, NOBEL FOUNDATION]

Never use Single-point Estimates for Pandemics

Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.