Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop) [PRIVATE]

Workshop organized by the Real World Risk Institute. The workshop is an intense 10-day online program, and the 18th edition took place from July 10-21, 2023.

This video discusses the capabilities and limitations of large language models like GPT, the challenges of setting constraints on AI systems, and the potential risks and consequences of AI decision-making. The video talks about:

  1. The concept of a “stochastic parrot” in language processing and machine learning.
  2. How language processing systems like GPT use data from the web to generate responses.
  3. Attempts to “trick” GPT with questions requiring nuanced understanding.
  4. The simple operation of GPT in predicting the next word in a sequence.
  5. The use of language models as a new interface to computers.
  6. The integration of GPT with Wolfram Alpha for computations and informed responses.
  7. The similarity between writing good prompts for GPT and expository writing.
  8. The training data for GPT, includes nonsense, fiction, and factual information.
  9. The problem of the “self-licking lollipop” in information sources.
  10. The concept of “necessarily human work” requires human choice and input.
  11. The potential for AI to make decisions and the challenges of setting constraints.
  12. A thought experiment called “promptocracy” for AI decision-making.
  13. The actuation layer of AI and the difficulty of setting constraints.
  14. The phenomenon of computational irreducibility and trade-offs in AI computation.
  15. The potential risks of AI decision-making and the need for understanding large language models.

[YouTube] MINI LECTURE 15 – Conditional vs. unconditional correlation: twin studies overestimate heredity

The genetics of twin studies have a bias showing more heredity than in reality, owing to a statistical artifact. The twin studies for heredity are based on comparing the correlation between 2 identical twins minus that between 2 fraternal ones (assumed to be sharing half their genes). The use of fraternal twins as control is assumed to extract the “environmental” factors. Problem: Correlation is conditional and psychologists think it is unconditional. We show how the math is entirely different. The core error is that genes and environment are not separable and additive.

[YouTube] Nassim on Market, Crypto, and Gold

Nassim Nicholas Taleb in an interaction with Ami Shah of on the sidelines of Times Network India Economic Conclave talks about what makes him bullish on gold, why he’s still betting on crypto, and why he doesn’t invest in India.

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