.org (UNOFFICIAL news site)
1) The law of large numbers (properties of aggregates) works in one direction. Why you can generalize from particulars, never particularize from generals.
2) The difference between clinical, statistical, and risk management approached. Why they don’t scale.
3) Never compare Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents).
Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.
The book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications is finally on Amazon. Click Here.
PDF freely available here – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2020). Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications. RESEARCHERS.ONE, https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21.
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
PDF Download Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.10488
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
From Nassim Taleb’s Facebook Page:
My Technical Incerto Vol1: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is almost done. This is the freely available draft for error correction.
Link to Paper: https://www. academia. edu/ 37221402/ TECHNICAL…
Link to Facebook Discussion: https://www. facebook. com/ nntaleb/ posts/ 10156061900203375
Micro Mooc #3. The law of large numbers is the most important thing in life and science. It is the basis of epistemology and problem of induction. How many observations do you need to know if something is true? We get into the plumbing and show how it is too slow under fat tails. This is a simplified (but technical) presentation of a segment of “Probability and Risk in the Real World”, the Technical Companion for The Black Swan http:// www. fooled by randomness. com/ FatTails. html