Link to Post on X – https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1982121385594953828
Amazon Link – https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FXPWYL9P/
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Releases Full-Color Hardcover of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Tag: Law of Large Numbers
[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 1
Max Heart Rate
When you do a stress test, say the Bruce Protocol, the administering doctor relies on something called the “age predicted maximum heart rate”, usually 220 minus your age, or some formula slightly more complicated but equally unrigorous. Once you reach that point, they stop, depriving you of potent information — at low risk since they are monitoring via live ECG your cardiac strain. In fact, such an estimation based on age, no matter how complicated its computation, appears to explain only 20% of the variation between individuals. I believe that explained variations are even smaller for, clearly, in the graph above, to the right, samples above 55 are sparce and the expected maxima would be considerably higher.
I noticed this myself as I am easily able to reach the 170s without feeling strain, guessing the effective max would be in the 180s (next test, but would require some live ECG for caution).
Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Announces Updated Paperback Edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails on Amazon
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Releases 3rd Edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
PDF Download Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.10488
[YouTube] Evidence-Based Science & Mistakes in Particularizing the General (Simplified)
1) The law of large numbers (properties of aggregates) works in one direction. Why you can generalize from particulars, never particularize from generals.
2) The difference between clinical, statistical, and risk management approached. Why they don’t scale.
3) Never compare Mediocristan to Extremistan (Covid to car accidents).
[YouTube] The Law of Large Numbers – a very Intuitive Introduction
Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.
The book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications is finally on Amazon
The book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications is finally on Amazon. Click Here.
PDF freely available here – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2020). Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications. RESEARCHERS.ONE, https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21.
Final Version of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails on arXiv Now Available
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
PDF Download Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.10488
Book cover for Nassim’s next book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
Technical Incerto, Vol 1: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
From Nassim Taleb’s Facebook Page:
My Technical Incerto Vol1: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails is almost done. This is the freely available draft for error correction.
Link to Paper: https://www. academia. edu/ 37221402/ TECHNICAL…
Link to Facebook Discussion: https://www. facebook. com/ nntaleb/ posts/ 10156061900203375