Tag: Fooled By Randomness

[YouTube] Nassim Taleb on Risks, Gold, Private Markets, Trump Tariffs

On By In Economics, Politics, Videos

Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” and scientific advisor at Universa Investments, says he doesn’t think the “consciousness of risks” has improved over the last 25 years. He discusses the increasing US deficit, gold as a reserve currency, the opacity of private markets, and why the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs “makes no sense.”

00:00 – Taleb on “consciousness of risks”
02:12 – What drives markets
04:23 – Taleb on the US dollar and gold as a reserve currency
07:18 – Nassim Taleb on hedge funds and the opacity of private markets
09:33 – Trump administration’s tariff approach “makes no sense,” Nassim Taleb says

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Conjecture Tested: Experiment Shows Results of Trading with News in Advance

On By In Academic, Economics, Twitter, X

Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Tweets ‘The Black Swan’ as the Most Influential 21st Century Book

On By In Statements, Twitter, X

The other 4 books in Taleb’s “Incerto” book series:

  1. Fooled by Randomness
  2. The Bed of Procrustes
  3. Antifragile
  4. Skin in the Game

[Twitter] A mini tutorial explaining the #FooledbyRandomness point

On By In Statements, Twitter

Mistakes often made in the interpretation of R^2 beyond the standard textbook by people who haven’t studied the ‘Fooled by Randomness’ effect on parameters of distribution, particularly when samples are small.

[Bloomberg Podcasts] Nassim Taleb on What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers, and Deadlift Maxis All Get Wrong

On By In Podcasts

In this Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast episode, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway have a wide-ranging conversation with Nassim Taleb, well-known author of Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness. Taleb has been engaging in public debates on Twitter with various communities such as Bitcoiners, anti-vaxxers, venture capitalists, and deadlifters. The discussion covers topics such as Taleb’s clash with these communities and what they’re getting wrong about his ideas, as well as his newfound passion for cycling and how to reduce tail risk in one’s own life. Join us for this engaging conversation on finance, economics, and markets.

[YouTube] Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness

On By In Statements, Videos

We are not naturally good at dealing with information.

Disinformation artists confuse you by focusing on noise over signal by playing on saliency, the same effect as the one discussed in Fooled by Randomness. We mistake the particular for the general, details for the ensemble, and noise for signal –all from the same mental bias.

Fake Regression by Psychologists

On By In Videos

Fake Regression by Psychologists (Fooled by Randomness), Based on the paper on Trust by Nicolas Baumard

How to detect fake regressions. Never pay attention to numbers before looking at the graph.

First I show how to spot fakes in a sinister paper by Nicolas Baumard et. al. linking people’s physical traits to (un)trusworthiness.

Second, more technically, I derive the distribution of the slope between two random variables and show how one can game it.