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Ralph welcomes author, statistician, and professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb to discuss the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and give us his take on the election results.
Listen to Podcast – ralphnaderradiohour.com/p/cabinet-of-curiosities
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, joins award-winning journalist Fintan O’Toole for a one-hour discussion on Power, Corruption, and Lies at Kilkenomics 2024. Taking place at the Watergate Theatre in Kilkenny on November 8th, 2024, this event is part of the world’s only economics and comedy festival.
Book now: kilkenomics.ticketsolve.com/ticketbooth/shows/873665809
Nassim Taleb, Black Swan author and Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor, talks about the fragility of markets, how to hedge against geopolitical risks and artificial intelligence. He’s on “Bloomberg Markets.”
Link to paper – papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4965616
Nassim Taleb is trader, researcher and essayist. He is the author of the Incerto, a multi-volume philosophical and practical meditation on uncertainty.
Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the “logic of science”; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can’t be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but… let’s not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let’s face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).
Link to essay – www.edge.org/conversation/the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics
The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. “Real tails” do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails. Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced “Ber-noo-yi” not “Ber-noo-li”, much like consigliere is pronounced “consiyyere”.
+The Turkey Problem
+ Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans
+ Meeting Kahneman
+ The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle.
Scott Patterson discusses with Nassim N Taleb his book Chaos Kings, chapter by chapter. This is Part 1.