[Twitter] Scott Patterson and Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Chaos Kings, Black Swans and the Precautionary Principle

On CNBC’s ‘The Exchange’, host Kelly Evans engages in a discussion with Scott Patterson and Nassim Nicholas Taleb on how Wall Street traders made billions by making big bets around major catastrophes.

[Bloomberg Podcasts] Nassim Taleb on What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers, and Deadlift Maxis All Get Wrong

In this Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast episode, hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway have a wide-ranging conversation with Nassim Taleb, well-known author of Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness. Taleb has been engaging in public debates on Twitter with various communities such as Bitcoiners, anti-vaxxers, venture capitalists, and deadlifters. The discussion covers topics such as Taleb’s clash with these communities and what they’re getting wrong about his ideas, as well as his newfound passion for cycling and how to reduce tail risk in one’s own life. Join us for this engaging conversation on finance, economics, and markets.

[YouTube] Black Swan Author Taleb on Markets, Interest Rates, Bubbles, Investing

Universa Investments Senior Scientific Advisor Nassim Taleb says the stock market is way too overvalued given current interest rates, and the road back to normal will be “very painful for some.” Taleb spoke exclusively to Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak at an investor day in Miami on Thursday. Earlier, Universa Investments told clients that ballooning debts across the global economy are poised to wreak havoc on markets rivaling the Great Depression.

[Medium] How I write

(Preface to the 15th year Italian edition of The Black Swan)

Imet Luca Formenton, Saggiatore’s capo twenty years ago, in April 2002, in the eternal city, in a mozzarella bar-terrace near the parliament. I spoke in highly ungrammatical Italian; he addressed me in impeccable English, a practice we have sort of maintained for twenty years. That was the period when I very badly wanted to satisfy my failed childhood dream to produce literature, but everything conspired to stop me from partaking of that highly protected genus.

Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/how-i-write-8b495eae0330

[Medium] The Masks Masquerade

I want to travel this summer

Incompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face Covering

SIX ERRORS: 1) missing the compounding effects of masks, 2) missing the nonlinearity of the probability of infection to viral exposures, 3) missing absence of evidence (of benefits of mask wearing) for evidence of absence (of benefits of mask wearing), 4) missing the point that people do not need governments to produce facial covering: they can make their own, 5) missing the compounding effects of statistical signals, 6) ignoring the Non-Aggression Principle by pseudolibertarians (masks are also to protect others from you; it’s a multiplicative process: every person you infect will infect others).

In fact masks (and faceshields) supplemented with constraints of superspreader events can save us trillions of dollars in future lockdowns (and lawsuits) and be potentially sufficient (under adequate compliance) to stem the pandemic. Bureaucrats do not like simple solutions.

Continue reading on Medium: medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade

Bloomberg: Black Swan Author Spars With Quant Legend Over Tail Risk Hedges

“Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb and quant investing pioneer Cliff Asness have engaged in a vitriolic Twitter dispute over the esoteric world of tail-risk hedging that descended into personal insults.

The spat began when Taleb sent a pair of tweets accusing the $143 billion AQR Capital Management LLC of issuing flawed reports that say tail-risk hedging doesn’t work.

Link to Bloomberg article: Black Swan Author Spars With Quant Legend Over Tail Risk Hedges