Third conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is a systemic risk; what not to do when a truck is headed your way. How acting early would have cost less? They also discuss:
John Ioannidis recent post “we are making decisions without reliable data”
Why we should make decisions without reliable data & use precautionary principles
How the costs would be so much smaller if we would have acted earlier.
Taleb is a very difficult person to pin down. As Ralph Nader put it last month: “You cannot pigeonhole him!” But I think that introduction to his insight (and foresight) should suffice to convince even those who have never heard of him before that he’s worth listening to.
Taleb is a former trader, a professor at NYU, and the author of several best-sellers including Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, and his just-released Skin in the Game. But perhaps its best to classify him as a “flaneur,” someone who — according to the Oxford Dictionary, “saunters around observing society.”