Uncertainty, Certainty and what to do when there is Systemic Risk

Third conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Yaneer Bar-Yam about uncertainty, certainty and what to do when there is a systemic risk; what not to do when a truck is headed your way. How acting early would have cost less? They also discuss:

  • John Ioannidis recent post “we are making decisions without reliable data”
  • Why we should make decisions without reliable data & use precautionary principles
  • How the costs would be so much smaller if we would have acted earlier.

Jan 26 Coronavirus Paper (PDF) – Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note, New England Complex Systems Institute (January 26, 2020).

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The Motley Fool interviews Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Taleb is a very difficult person to pin down. As Ralph Nader put it last month: “You cannot pigeonhole him!” But I think that introduction to his insight (and foresight) should suffice to convince even those who have never heard of him before that he’s worth listening to.

Taleb is a former trader, a professor at NYU, and the author of several best-sellers including Fooled by RandomnessThe Black SwanAntifragile, and his just-released Skin in the GameBut perhaps its best to classify him as a “flaneur,” someone who — according to the Oxford Dictionary, “saunters around observing society.”

Also see written article here: https:// www. fool. com/ investing/ 2018/ 04/ 03/ motley- fool- interview- nassim- nicholas- taleb.aspx