The empirical distribution is not empirical, full of Turkey problems. “Real tails” do not show in past samples because of their property under fat tails. Empirical distributions are, by design, interpolating; we fix by extrapolating and extending the tails. Note the dispute: In French, Bernoulli is pronounced “Ber-noo-yi” not “Ber-noo-li”, much like consigliere is pronounced “consiyyere”.
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Reiterates His Critique: IQ as Pseudoscience and Its Role in Race Science
[Twitter | X] Medicine & Entropy: Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Health Asymmetry Between ‘Sedentary’ and ‘Fit’
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Says: Don’t Risk It All Betting Against a Bubble
[Twitter | X] ECONOMIC DISCUSSION: where does inflation come from when raw materials are roughly unchanged?
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 4
Topics Covered:
- Geoengineering
- Mao’s Four Pest Problem
- Brexit
- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government
- The “LongTermism” nonsense of SBF
- The Final Chapter
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the Kelly Criterion and Mutual Information in Investment Settings
[YouTube] Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Bitcoin is Not a Hedge Against Market Sell-Offs
Nassim Taleb, Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor and ‘The Black Swan’ author, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the market sell-off, the Fed’s inflation fight, interest rate outlook, bitcoin’s volatility, and more.
[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Dismisses Labeling S&P 500’s Worst Day in Two Years as a ‘Black Swan’ Event
[YouTube] A Discussion With Scott Patterson’s About His Book Chaos Kings, Part 3
- Why Ilmanen-style “simulations” of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of:
- The need to extrapolate extremes.
- The Niederhoffer problem.
- The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.