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Dear enemies,The Black Swan is now the most influential (that is, discussed/mentioned) 21st C book.
While almost all books have a half-life between 2 and 6 months, it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy

[Same with other 4 books in the Incerto. Graph is US only] pic.twitter.com/eUYGTPtMTJ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 30, 2024

The other 4 books in Taleb’s “Incerto” book series:

Fooled by Randomness
The Bed of Procrustes
Antifragile
Skin in the Game

STATINS
As I explained in Antifragile, much of the results recommending drugs do "statistical gerrymandering", that is, pollute the base rate w/the sick population.

A great new study in JAMA shows a J curve for statins for non-sick people, with n >4.5 Mil! (China pop). https://t.co/RErQgjO2DY pic.twitter.com/Ogr67tjL8G
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 24, 2024

Link to JAMA study: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821340

Why are we seeing an explosion of research from China, India, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, etc.?

A tiny bit of growth leads to nonlinear effects in the tails. As education improves 1 STD, the number of PhDs is multiplied by 42.

Need to calibrate with real nmbrs. pic.twitter.com/QRctYvJ6Qs
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 6, 2024

2/This is not about paper mills, etc., but genuine research (i.e., in Nature Index) and doctorates in medicine.
Also this applies to skills in the tails, like STEM pple, not just PhDs.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 6, 2024

Category: X

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Tweets ‘The Black Swan’ as the Most Influential 21st Century Book

[Twitter | X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Cites JAMA Study to Reinforce Critique of Statistical Gerrymandering in Drug Recommendations

[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains Why Economists Struggle in Practical Fields

[Twitter/X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Explains the Research Surge in Developing Countries