FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS My conjecture, expressed on X, that pple w/news in advance don't do well has been tested by Haghani et al.
Indeed they failed to really capitalize on information 1) you don't know beforehand what is noise, & 2) overestimate the information (sizing) pic.twitter.com/6pcwrrVOgf
Finally, years after my IQ is not like height. Height is measured, IQ (assuming it works) is estimated. Height is low-dimensional with small variance, so the expression translates more accurately. IQ is high dimensional with high variance and high dependence on environment. https://t.co/ypvMLOMYNTpic.twitter.com/o2zbMIB0Kk
I keep insisting on asymmetries from using wrong reference base. "Sedentary bt healthy" as control gets different results from using "environmentally fit" (10-15 h of exercise). Like K-L divergence which is never symmetric.
2/ The Kullbacl-Leibner divergence is simply the relative distance between indiv* A and indiv B using the traits of B as baseline. *Or population pic.twitter.com/s4STaTYwFn
Don't risk it all betting against a bubble. I know it is tempting, but resist: Spitznagel's come to Jesus moment: close your eyes and imagine + 20% and ~-50%.https://t.co/tHej8plVfhpic.twitter.com/SXHHI90xLX
DISCUSSION Thanks to a 6 hours flight delay, relied on the soothing effect of mathematics & tried to figure out the effect of side information in a Kelly-style betting framework, which requires re-deriving Kelly. Any derivation/sign errors? pic.twitter.com/dI2BQGeSUR
Was yesterday's huge market sell-off, the worst day for the S&P 500 in nearly two years, a "Black Swan" event?@NNTaleb, who wrote "The Black Swan," says no. pic.twitter.com/xj0DR4wEZd
Dear enemies,The Black Swan is now the most influential (that is, discussed/mentioned) 21st C book. While almost all books have a half-life between 2 and 6 months, it does not appear to have a half-life. #Lindy