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Fake Regression by Psychologists (Fooled by Randomness), Based on the paper on Trust by Nicolas Baumard
How to detect fake regressions. Never pay attention to numbers before looking at the graph.
First I show how to spot fakes in a sinister paper by Nicolas Baumard et. al. linking people’s physical traits to (un)trusworthiness.
Second, more technically, I derive the distribution of the slope between two random variables and show how one can game it.
Nassim Taleb, New York University distinguished professor of risk engineering, discusses what he sees as misconceptions about the coronavirus pandemic and comments on the Federal Reserve’s shift in monetary policy. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker.
A continuation of Nassim and Yaneer’s regular conversation. In this video, they discuss:
1) The errors in ignoring scaling for pandemics. Why a doctor’s micro-expertise doesn’t transfer to collective risks?
2) How evidence-based medicine is closer to anecdote based medicine owing to silent risks?
3) The risks of morbidity must be accounted for.
4) How the dangers of vaccines do not scale.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks about the pandemic with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.
Link to Podcast – econtalk.org/nassim-nicholas-taleb-on-the-pandemic/
Direct Link (mp3): Talebpandemic.mp3
You can get English subtitles by:
Step 1. Click on Settings (gear icon), Subtitles/CC and select French (auto-generated).
Step 2. Go to Settings again, Subtitles/CC and then select Auto-translate and then select English.
It should then show as “Subtitles/CC (2) French (auto-generated) >> English“
Modern financial theory assumes that distributions are elliptical. We show what happens if the assumption doesn’t hold. And the assumption doesn’t hold.
Diversification does NOT reduce risks in the financial market; it causes near-certain long term blowups under any leverage.
Nassim Taleb joins EndCoronavirus.org Founder, Yaneer Bar-Yam, for a Town Hall discussion.
Website: EndCoronavirus.org
Join Us: EndCoronavirus.org/join
Take Action: Community.EndCoronavirus.org
Twitter: twitter.com/endCOVID19
Instagram: instagram.com/end_covid19
Facebook Page: facebook.com/endcoronavirus.org
Facebook Group: facebook.com/groups/endcoronavirus
In this conversation, Nassim Taleb and Dr. Pasquale Cirillo speak about their paper on the tail risk of contagious diseases and other related things.
The paper will be available on this link on Monday, May 25 at 5pm (CET):
Link to the Paper – Tail risk of contagious diseases
Interview starts at about 1:57:30 of the Facebook video
Moderator: Mr. Nikunj Dalmia (Managing Editor, ET Now)
Link – facebook.com/abcabslmf/videos/243939166875554/
ERRORS 101
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat-tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.