The CLT allows anyone (including ignorant economists and psychologists) to do statistics by using prepackaged recipes coming from the Gaussian. What are the foundations? How does it work? Where does it not work?
Category: Videos
[YouTube] The Law of Large Numbers – a very Intuitive Introduction
Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.
[YouTube] Breaking down Intuitively the Concept of Standard Deviation
SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL, 1 (in the series where we break down concepts intuitively):
Before we talk about correlation, let’s discuss standard deviation, its analog in dimension 1. People don’t get while using it as a metric for deviation!
See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
[YouTube] Fat Tails: An Introductory Presentation
What are Fat Tails? This is very introductory. See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Bitcoin is a ‘gimmick’ and a ‘game,’ says it resembles a Ponzi scheme
“Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Friday criticized bitcoin as a “gimmick,” telling CNBC he believes it’s too volatile to be an effective currency and it’s not a safe hedge against inflation.
Basically, there’s no connection between inflation and bitcoin. None. I mean, you can have hyperinflation and bitcoin going to zero. There’s no link between them,” Taleb said in a “Squawk Box” interview.
Link to the interview: cnbc.com/2021/04/23/bitcoin…
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the French Study on the economic performance of zero-Covid countries
Countries that Panicked Early Did Best: A Conversation With Yaneer Bar Yam
Link to the Study – The Zero Covid strategy protects people and economies more effectively
[YouTube] Correlation measures are misused in the presence of nonlinearities
A VERY SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL (VERY SHORT)
Correlation measures are misused in the presence of nonlinearities.
(How a measure of unintelligence can give the illusion of high correlation with performance.)
Correlation measures are not supposed to be used in the presence of nonlinearities. When 2 variables correlate half the time (in a symmetric way around the mean), correlation will not be 50% but will show ~90%. Part of debunking IQ studies. If IQ works for disabilities but does not correlate with success, there is an illusion of correlation because of the biases in the metric.
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the Danish Study on Face Masks
Nassim and Yaneer discuss the Danish study on Face Masks published by Bundgaard et al., “Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers.”
HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN THE PRESENCE OF FALSE POSITIVES: THE FLAWS IN THE DANISH MASK STUDY
Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Global coronavirus response a case study of government incompetence and denial
In a “Squawk Box” interview, Taleb specifically pointed to the importance of coronavirus testing. While countries have improved their capacity since the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak, Taleb said there has been a failure to develop quick, efficient testing at a scale that can cut off chains of transmission early. It also has the least economic cost, he said.
Link to the interview: cnbc.com/2020/11/02/…
[YouTube] enlightED 2020: Conversation between Nassim Taleb and Teresa Martín-Retortillo
Conversation between Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Executive President of IE Exponential Learning at IE University, Teresa Martín-Retortillo at enlightED Virtual Edition 2020.
starts at 12:45 of the YouTube video.