TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling. Stephen Wolfram’s discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others.
Category: Academic
Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Says US Faces a ‘Death Spiral’ of Swelling Debt
Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said the US deficit is swelling to a point that it would take a miracle to reverse the damage.
Read More… [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/nassim-taleb-says-us-faces-a-death-spiral-of-swelling-debt]
A case study in Non-replicability of a Medical paper [YouTube]
A case study in non-replicability of a medical paper. I discuss it with Dr. Fouad Fayad from U.S.J. in Lebanon. Details are in Retraction Watch.
Apparently, the only reply to his case by the study’s lead author is of the fact-free data-free sort “he doesn’t like me” which does not appear to have a statistical explanation.
Note: Retraction Watch did a great job presenting facts, and the attempt to retaliate against Dr. Fayad. Note that the 4 expert reports were not attached. Also, note that the paper violated FDA rules (and those of the corresponding European agency).
[Medium] Foreword to Mark Spitznagel’s book Safe Haven
Santa Marina — Karl Popper — Herman Hesse’s Sidharta — Mutua Muli — Porsche’s no substitute
Santa Marina
In my ancestral village in the Northern Levant, on top of a hill, stands a church dedicated to Santa Marina. Marina is a local saint, though, characteristically, some other traditions claim her –such as Bithynia or other Anatolian provinces of the Eastern Roman Empire.
Read the complete foreword on Medium.
Get the book on Amazon.
[Medium] Foreword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander Bogomolny
How do you learn a language? There are two routes; the first is to memorize imperfect verbs, grammatical rules, future vs. past tenses, recite boring context-free sentences, and pass an exam. The second approach consists in going to a bar, struggling a little bit and, out of the need to blend-in and integrate with a fun group of people, then suddenly find yourself able to communicate. In other words, by playing, by being alive as a human being. I personally have never seen anyone learn to speak a language properly by the first route. Also, I have never seen anyone fail to do so by the second one.
Read the complete foreword on Medium.
Get the book on Amazon.
How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach
Discussion with Dhruv Madeka of the paper: Election Pricing: a Martingale Approach and other related works.
Link to the Paper: Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics
Nassim Nicholas Taleb∗, Pierre Zalloua, and Dan Platt
∗Corresponding author, [email protected] Dec 2019
We discuss the inadequacy of covariances/correlations and other measures in L-2 as relative distance metrics. We propose a computationally simple heuristic to transform a map based on standard principal component analysis (PCA) (when the variables are asymptotically Gaussian) into an entropy-based map where distances are based on mutual information.
PDF Download Link: academia.edu/41442347/Informational…
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases
Pasquale Cirillo∗ and Nassim Nicholas Taleb†
∗Applied Probability Group, Delft University of Technology
†Tandon School of Engineering, New York University
Forthcoming, Nature Physics
PDF Download Link: academia.edu/42307438/…
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Nassim is back posting on Facebook
Nassim has updated his followers on Facebook regarding his latest work debunking IQ science.