Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.
Author: Admin
[YouTube] Breaking down Intuitively the Concept of Standard Deviation
SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL, 1 (in the series where we break down concepts intuitively):
Before we talk about correlation, let’s discuss standard deviation, its analog in dimension 1. People don’t get while using it as a metric for deviation!
See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
[YouTube] Fat Tails: An Introductory Presentation
What are Fat Tails? This is very introductory. See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)
Link to the Book: Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Bitcoin is a ‘gimmick’ and a ‘game,’ says it resembles a Ponzi scheme
“Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Friday criticized bitcoin as a “gimmick,” telling CNBC he believes it’s too volatile to be an effective currency and it’s not a safe hedge against inflation.
Basically, there’s no connection between inflation and bitcoin. None. I mean, you can have hyperinflation and bitcoin going to zero. There’s no link between them,” Taleb said in a “Squawk Box” interview.
Link to the interview: cnbc.com/2021/04/23/bitcoin…
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the French Study on the economic performance of zero-Covid countries
Countries that Panicked Early Did Best: A Conversation With Yaneer Bar Yam
Link to the Study – The Zero Covid strategy protects people and economies more effectively
[YouTube] Correlation measures are misused in the presence of nonlinearities
A VERY SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL (VERY SHORT)
Correlation measures are misused in the presence of nonlinearities.
(How a measure of unintelligence can give the illusion of high correlation with performance.)
Correlation measures are not supposed to be used in the presence of nonlinearities. When 2 variables correlate half the time (in a symmetric way around the mean), correlation will not be 50% but will show ~90%. Part of debunking IQ studies. If IQ works for disabilities but does not correlate with success, there is an illusion of correlation because of the biases in the metric.
Paper: SCALA POLITICA – Politics and Governance Under Scaling and Uncertainty
Most of the tension resides between 1) Embedded, complexity-minded, multiscale/fractal localism (politics as an ecology/complex adaptive system), and 2) Abstract one-dimensional universalists and monoculturalism (politics as a top-down engineering project). We go beyond the verbalism; we rely on information theory, complexity theory, uncertainty approaches (say fragility), and probabilistic rigor to look at politics with the same eyes as we examine highly dimensional interactive elements such as nature, biological systems, internet networks, and medical issues.
Link to Paper – academia.edu/38433249/Scala_Politica
Life Expectancy can be so grossly misunderstood by “experts”
Link to article – Some (Mis)Understanding of Life Expectancy, With Some Good News
Paper: Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetics
Link to Paper – academia.edu/41442347/Informational…
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the Danish Study on Face Masks
Nassim and Yaneer discuss the Danish study on Face Masks published by Bundgaard et al., “Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers.”
HYPOTHESIS TESTING IN THE PRESENCE OF FALSE POSITIVES: THE FLAWS IN THE DANISH MASK STUDY