## [YouTube] Fooled by Metrics (Correlation)

A maximally simplified presentation of how metrics are random variables, and how they can be gamed. Uncorrelated variables will produce a correlation in samples.

## [YouTube] The Gates Foundation is Repeating the Errors of Mao Zedong

The Gates Foundation is financing genetically modified mosquitoes to control natural mosquitoes. This quick video:
1) Discusses the Four Pest Campaign by Mao that helped kill 15-50 Million people around 1960.
2) Explains why genetic modification has nothing to do with natural selection or animal breeding.
Scientism is not science.

## [Medium] Foreword to Mark Spitznagel’s book Safe Haven

Santa Marina — Karl Popper — Herman Hesse’s Sidharta — Mutua Muli — Porsche’s no substitute

Santa Marina

In my ancestral village in the Northern Levant, on top of a hill, stands a church dedicated to Santa Marina. Marina is a local saint, though, characteristically, some other traditions claim her –such as Bithynia or other Anatolian provinces of the Eastern Roman Empire.

Read the complete foreword on Medium.

Get the book on Amazon.

## [YouTube] Correlation: The Intuition (Doesn’t mean what people usually think it means)

A maximally intuitive presentation on what correlation is not, with maximally simplified concepts. [Note that I improvise 100% and I don’t prepare] There is a more technical lecture to come.

The technical paper is here: Fooled by Correlation: Common Misinterpretations in Social “Science”

## [YouTube] Central Limit Theorem – a Nontechnical Presentation

The CLT allows anyone (including ignorant economists and psychologists) to do statistics by using prepackaged recipes coming from the Gaussian. What are the foundations? How does it work? Where does it not work?

## [YouTube] The Law of Large Numbers – a very Intuitive Introduction

Everything in empirical science is based on the law of large numbers. Remember that it fails under fat tails.

## [YouTube] Breaking down Intuitively the Concept of Standard Deviation

SIMPLIFIED TUTORIAL, 1 (in the series where we break down concepts intuitively):
Before we talk about correlation, let’s discuss standard deviation, its analog in dimension 1. People don’t get while using it as a metric for deviation!

See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)

## [YouTube] Fat Tails: An Introductory Presentation

What are Fat Tails? This is very introductory. See the whole book (gets technical beyond Chapter 5)

## Nassim on CNBC Squawk Box: Bitcoin is a ‘gimmick’ and a ‘game,’ says it resembles a Ponzi scheme

“Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Friday criticized bitcoin as a “gimmick,” telling CNBC he believes it’s too volatile to be an effective currency and it’s not a safe hedge against inflation.

Basically, there’s no connection between inflation and bitcoin. None. I mean, you can have hyperinflation and bitcoin going to zero. There’s no link between them,” Taleb said in a “Squawk Box” interview.