At the 2022 Greenwich Economic Forum-Miami, Black Swan author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why correlation is unreliable as a due diligence tool. Coming as it does during an ongoing pandemic and in the middle of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Taleb also discusses Wars and Pandemics and puts them into their proper risk buckets.
Author: Admin
[YouTube] Disinformation and Fooled by Randomness
We are not naturally good at dealing with information.
Disinformation artists confuse you by focusing on noise over signal by playing on saliency, the same effect as the one discussed in Fooled by Randomness. We mistake the particular for the general, details for the ensemble, and noise for signal –all from the same mental bias.
[YouTube] QUANT FINANCE 1 – Why We Never Use the Black Scholes Equation, 1
The first part explaining the Bachelier equation and how options were priced traditionally.
[YouTube] Nassim and Yaneer Bar-Yam discuss the COVID situation with some Disagreements
Yaneer Bar-Yam and Nassim discuss the COVID-19 situation with some disagreements.
[YouTube] First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical)
A first, very introductory presentation of fragility as linked to both nonlinearity and dislike of variations. Antifragility is almost the opposite, limited to a specific range of variations.
Explains:
- Why everything fragile must be concave.
- The medical S curve.
- Why harm to the climate is necessarily nonlinear in dose response.
- How hospitals can be overcrowded unless there are redundancies.
Further discussions will be more technical.
[YouTube] How to Look at the Risks of Covid Vaccines?
How to look at the risks of Covid vaccines, why they are much lower than you think. We never had a larger monitored sample size in history and it allows events that on average show up later to manifest themselves very early on. Rationale: It takes a long time in a casino for someone to win 8 times in a row. But if 8 billion people played at the same time you would certainly witness a minimum of such events every day.
[YouTube] Drawdowns and Logs
Quick presentation of drawdowns and the necessity to use logarithms for returns.
[YouTube] Path dependence in 3 minutes
Explaining path dependence and maximum drawdown. I made a mistake in terminology. What I called max drawdown is a local or “window drawdown” or “peak to the subsequent valley”. The real max drawdown is the one that goes from the peak to 80.
[Twitter] Maximum Ignorance Probability, with Application to Surgery’s Error Rates
A maximum entropy alternative to Bayesian methods for the estimation of independent Bernouilli sums.
[YouTube] Simpson’s Paradox & Its Exploitation by Covid Sociopaths
In every age bracket, the vaccinated live longer than the unvaccinated. However as a group, the unvaccinated appear to have a longer life expectancy. This is because the vaccinated tend to be older (hence more likely to die). I explain Simpson’s Paradox in general.
Note: I used the vaccinated/unvaccinated ratio for 50-60 vs 10-20 of Oct 2021, so don’t bug me if it rose since; no effect on the point so long as there is an inequality.