Link to Post on X – https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1982121385594953828
Amazon Link – https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0FXPWYL9P/
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Releases Full-Color Hardcover of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
Author: Admin
[X] TRUE WEALTH (3rd Ed)
Link to Post on X – x.com/nntaleb/status/1979651428038672799
[YouTube] A Conversation with Nassim Taleb on the Risks of Cancer and Heart Disease
Emi Gal, founder and CEO of Ezra, sat down with Nassim Taleb to talk about cancer, heart disease, full body MRIs, and more. The conversation covers why Nassim gets full body MRIs, the legitimate concerns around incidental findings, and what the data actually says about early cancer detection.
Bloomberg: Nassim Taleb Warns to Hedge Against Crash as Debt Crisis Looms
(Bloomberg) — author Nassim Taleb said investors should insure against a stock-market crash as structural issues such as the US debt burden threaten to derail an otherwise unstoppable rally.
Even with US stocks making multiple record highs and corporate profits surging, Taleb, a distinguished scientist for hedge fund Universa Investments, warns that the real danger now comes from visible risks, so-called “white swans,” that most people ignore until it’s too late.
Read the full article: finance.yahoo.com/news/nassim-taleb-warns-hedge
[Substack] Medical Mistakes with Probability, 1
Max Heart Rate
When you do a stress test, say the Bruce Protocol, the administering doctor relies on something called the “age predicted maximum heart rate”, usually 220 minus your age, or some formula slightly more complicated but equally unrigorous. Once you reach that point, they stop, depriving you of potent information — at low risk since they are monitoring via live ECG your cardiac strain. In fact, such an estimation based on age, no matter how complicated its computation, appears to explain only 20% of the variation between individuals. I believe that explained variations are even smaller for, clearly, in the graph above, to the right, samples above 55 are sparce and the expected maxima would be considerably higher.
I noticed this myself as I am easily able to reach the 170s without feeling strain, guessing the effective max would be in the 180s (next test, but would require some live ECG for caution).
Continue reading on Substack – open.substack.com/pub/nntaleb/p/medical-mistakes-with-probability
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Shares Update on Volume 2 of The Technical Incerto Probability Risk and Convexity
Link to post on X – x.com/nntaleb/status/1974816353933570212
[X] The Regress of Uncertainty and the Forecasting Paradox
[X] Nassim Nicholas Taleb Announces Updated Paperback Edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails on Amazon
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Releases 3rd Edition of Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
PDF Download Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.10488
[Medium] The World in Which We Live Now
Lecture at the Annual Meeting of the Ron Paul Institute, 2025
Friends, I have seven points. Why seven? Because I’ve been reading too much Babylonian history recently.
FROM CONNECTIVITY TO TECHNOFEUDALISM
The first one is about concentration, a distinctive feature of the modern world, often tied to what I called the Black Swan problem. We now see winner-take-all effects everywhere, owing to connectivity. Imagine an island with many species but a high density per square meter. Compare that to a continent, where opening up space leads to fewer species per meter because some will eventually dominate. This mirrors cultural and economic life today.
Continue reading on Medium: nntaleb.medium.com/the-world-in-which-we-live